A value bet

[Andy B]

A week ago Friday, I found myself in Canterbury’s $4/8 stud game. During the week, it’s only $2/4 and $3/6, but on Fridays, the high rollers descend upon the track and play either $4/8 or $6/12. Lately, it’s $4/8 with a $.50 ante most of the time. I can take only so much limit hold’em, and several friends were in the game, so I sat in for a little while.

After a while, I move to the 7 seat. E is in the 6 seat. We’ve played together many times over the years. He’s a nice guy, a decent player but on the weak-tight side. He is buried in this game. Can’t win a hand. We’ve all been there.

LH in the 1 seat brings it in for $2 with a Deuce in the door. There are four calls to E, who completes with the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the door. He doesn’t need to have Aces to make this play. Diamonds are pretty live, so a three-flush is a distinct possibility, or he could have a medium-to-big pocket pair. I am next with (K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and call. This is perhaps not the strongest call I’ve ever made, but

1) Pairs don’t come around that often.
2) My hand is live.
3) E can’t win a hand.
4) It’s four lousy dollars.
5) The King is coming.

So I call. Whether or not I should isn’t really the point of this post, but I think my hand is a hell of a lot better than the average hand of the four guys who limped in front of E, so I think I have a little equity. I don’t think that raising would have the desired effect for me. Guy behind me calls with a Ten, L folds, and the rest of the field calls. Seven to fourth street.

On fourth street, I catch a King for two pair. Told you it was coming. Unfortunately, the guy behind me pairs his Ten. There were no other Tens out on third street. I’ve played with this guy a time or two before, but I don’t know him nearly as well as I know most of the other players in the game, so no real read. Just your typical, not-very-good, low-limit stud player. He bets $8. Five folds to me (E had a three-flush), and I call. I think that one of my full house cards showed on fourth street.

On fifth I catch a Ten. This makes it somewhat less likely that he has trips, but trips remain a strong possibility. He bets and I call. Same action on sixth.

On the river, my opponent checks. I haven’t improved, but I make what I thought was an obvious value bet. My opponent called and showed pocket something-or-others and my hand was good.

E was astounded by my bet on the end. I don’t usually like to discuss strategy at the table, but this crew is a little different. I opined that if you can’t make bets like that, it’s very hard to make any money in this game. Too many low-limit stud players, including some of you, and even a goodly number of $20/40 players at Foxwoods, miss bets like this.

This is an obvious, obvious bet. I really didn’t think the other guy would check trip Tens on the end. It was very likely that he had two pair, and if that’s what he had, then it was overwhelmingly likely that my hand was a little better. He is going to pay off.

Let the E’s of the world miss these bets. Don’t you go missing them too.