AQ - How do I play it against a donkey

Interesting hand last night at Caesar's Indiana, $300 max $1-2 NLHE.

I have $350 behind, foe has $350 also.

3 limpers in front, I have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I raise to $12 (standard for this game)

All limpers call.

Flop is:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checks around to me, pot is $48, I bet $40.

Foe in SB min rasies to $80 all others fold to me.

I have a good read on SB. He is very donkish and has showed more than one bluff at the table. Foe has min raised on draws and air frequently. If he has queens beat, I am 95% positive he raises more.

What do I do? <I will post outcomes after feedback>

[PinkSteel]

If you're 95% sure that he doesn't have TPTK beat based on his bet, then... in it goes.

"Caesar's Indiana." Just doesn't sound right....

If you are 95% sure that he raises more if he has TPTK beat, then I come over the top on him. From the looks of the board, looks like he may be raising with either Ax diamonds or JT or just bluffing, either way, i want him to pay to see the turn card.

[4_2_it]

If you read a draw or bluff, then you push it in while saying "I feel like gamboooling tonight"

[ QUOTE ]
If you are 95% sure that he raises more if he has TPTK beat, then I come over the top on him. From the looks of the board, looks like he may be raising with either Ax diamonds or JT or just bluffing, either way, i want him to pay to see the turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post!

I put him on either a weak flush draw, KQ, QJ or Q10. I was pretty confident about my read. If he had the nut flush draw, I think he rasies more, plus I have one of the aces, so i think that is less likely.

[yvesaint]

mmmm given your read i probably call and pound a non-diamond turn

[Arbogast]

I would call. Why push him off a worse hand or a draw?

If the turn doesn't complete a draw, I bet around 3/4 of the pot and pray he calls.

If the turn completes a draw, it would depend on my read.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call. Why push him off a worse hand or a draw?

If the turn doesn't complete a draw, I bet around 3/4 of the pot and pray he calls.

If the turn completes a draw, it would depend on my read.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is read dependent. Yes, you want him to stay if he is drawing (unless he has K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) The goal is to get as much of his money in the middle before the scare cards come since you usually do not know if villain is chasing a straight or a flush (here it was both which is bad luck). Here, OP thought villain was on a bluff or semi-bluff.

On a less scary board I think you can call and let villain continue to massacre himself, but with this board there are too many scare cards which would kill your future action.

Go with your read and make a large re-raise here. Maybe even all your chips but $200 might be good too. The pot's plenty large at this point to where you'll be happy to take it down. You have to ask yourself, "Is the next card more likely to break me or my opponent?". The obvious answer is that it's much more likely to break you. Drop the hammer and take it down.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
mmmm given your read i probably call and pound a non-diamond turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same, yet most others in this thread seem to disagree.

I already read the results so this might be a bit biased, but what about calling in an attempt to force him into a mistake on the turn where his equity drops significantly?

Based on your read of this player, it sounds like we're going broke to a set anyway, might as well wait for a safe turn to commit these deep stacks where your equity is much greater (and actually in the lead, heh heh) against his drawing hands. Intuitively, it seems that you're making a much smaller mistake by calling his flop check raise instead of reraising here (when a diamond/straight card hits), as compared to the mistake he makes when commiting a large portion of his stack on a safe turn...I haven't run the numbers to quantify this though.

KoW