ATTN: King Yao. Sports betting book?

[chson]

Hi King.

Do you have plans of ever writing a book on sports betting?

[King Yao]

I am not sure. A solid book on sports betting is problematic for the author if it means other players will use his strategies, and thus possibly destroy his own opportunities to place the same bets. This problem doesn't exist to the same magnitude as it does in poker - not even close. Its likely that a solid book by a big betting author will lose more money for the author in terms of lost opportunity than it will in book sales. At the same time, a book on information that won't hurt the author, won't help the readers as much either. I haven't no interest in a basic book (such as one outlining what the money line is, what the point spreads mean, etc.), so that leaves me still wondering. Can I write about enough interesting and useful things to the reader, that at the same time won't hurt me? I'm not sure.

[chson]

That's what I figured. Thanks for the reply, King.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sure. A solid book on sports betting is problematic for the author if it means other players will use his strategies, and thus possibly destroy his own opportunities to place the same bets. This problem doesn't exist to the same magnitude as it does in poker - not even close. Its likely that a solid book by a big betting author will lose more money for the author in terms of lost opportunity than it will in book sales. At the same time, a book on information that won't hurt the author, won't help the readers as much either. I haven't no interest in a basic book (such as one outlining what the money line is, what the point spreads mean, etc.), so that leaves me still wondering. Can I write about enough interesting and useful things to the reader, that at the same time won't hurt me? I'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

King, yes you can do it. Here's how: Sell the book for something like $200 or $500 and make it available only through you. I would buy it in a heartbeat. Alternatively, see my IM.

[King Yao]

The people that would pay $500 a pop would be the people that are most likely to hurt my opportunities.

[tek]

In the meantime, Amarillo Slim said (in his recent biography) that going with the underdogs will be +EV over the course of a year.

He also likes youngins, so I'm [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Lalit Khajuria]

I have read some good stuff about sports betting and since USA is supposed to be the biggest sports betting market in world, im surprised there if there isin't a good book?

Can you give a little referance of the books aveilable.

And are these things included in books(as if they are im very intrsted to hear what's the even bigger key for winning sports betting):

1) Kelly-criteria
2) Over odds(+ev)
3) Power-ratings and how to make them
4) Calculating the odds
5) Making computer programs to calculate the odds
6) Poisson
7) Arbitrases
8) How much does every single thing effect to your %-estimations.

Those are the things that came to my mind now..

I dont know who King Yao is but if he is a great sports bettor I would love to discuss about some stuff with him on this forum.

[King Yao]

The book for you is Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. He doesn't cover everything you are asking for, but he does cover Poisson, middles, etc. You can probably find the table of contents on Amazon.

[npc]

[ QUOTE ]
I have read some good stuff about sports betting and since USA is supposed to be the biggest sports betting market in world, im surprised there if there isin't a good book?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some good books, Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting" being the best I've read, but there is a lot that could be written on the subject that isn't, probably mostly for the reasons that King Yao mentions.

[ QUOTE ]

And are these things included in books(as if they are im very intrsted to hear what's the even bigger key for winning sports betting):

1) Kelly-criteria

[/ QUOTE ]

This is mentioned everywhere. Wong's book, for instance, discusses it. So does J.R. Miller in his book, although he derides it. (This is one of the things that I greatly disliked about his book.) The blackjack literature is replete with discussions about Kelly betting. Of course, the trick is to accurately determine your edge.

[ QUOTE ]

2) Over odds(+ev)


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what this means.

[ QUOTE ]

3) Power-ratings and how to make them


[/ QUOTE ]

The best information I've seen on this in a book is the aforementioned J.R. Miller's "How Professionals Beat the Pro Football Point Spread". His methods have some flaws, but it's a start. Also, some information on this can be found in the academic literature. For example, Dr. Hal Stern of Iowa State has written a couple of papers that contain information that someone working in this area might find useful.

[ QUOTE ]

4) Calculating the odds


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say this is mostly subsumed in other areas.

[ QUOTE ]

5) Making computer programs to calculate the odds


[/ QUOTE ]

Once you've got a model for the games themselves, this should be a straightforward application of statistics. I'd think nearly any book on computer statistics would serve here.

[ QUOTE ]

6) Poisson
7) Arbitrases


[/ QUOTE ]

Wong covers these two topics quite well, IMHO.

[ QUOTE ]

8) How much does every single thing effect to your %-estimations.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some can be said about this, but the effects on some things (such as weather) may be time variant. However, it's pretty straightforward to write simple programs to examine the data to look for variable effects such as home field, weather, etc.. Part of the trick is knowing what variables to look for, although, honestly, I think most sports betting pundits make a bigger deal of these factors than is warranted.

Most of these things are at least discussed in existing literature. I'm still looking for a better published power ranking algorithm than the one Miller describes. (If someone knows of one, let me know. I've got one I use, but it could likely use some work. Heck, I don't even see any discussions of these issues on the 2+2 Sports Betting forum, although maybe I just don't know what I'm looking for.) Most of the math stuff is out there or straightforward for a modestly skilled programmer to adapt. Wong's book provides a lot of good information here.