10/20 JTo river value bet

jason_t · #1 11-30-2005, 11:33 PM

MP2 is 30/9/1.3 wtsd/w$@sd=32/60 after 500 hands and for the BB I don't have stats but he seemed bad.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, I call, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, I raise, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, I bet, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, I bet

hobbsmann · #2 11-30-2005, 11:43 PM

This looks standard to me. MP2 limps as many bad J's you beat as ones that beat you (J8/J7 vs QJ/KJ) and while it appears with his showdown stats he might not payoff 9s, your 'bad' read on BB makes this a value bet IMO.

DeathDonkey · #3 12-01-2005, 12:19 AM

I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

-DeathDonkey

sweetjazz · #4 12-01-2005, 12:29 AM

I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

I like the thin value bet, as you will often get called by worse hands from the BB and we can't say for sure what MP2 will call with, but probably you'll either get paid off by a worse J or maybe even he will choose not to overcall with JT or QJ in this spot. The latter possibility is not that likely, but given his stats, it isn't totally farfetched.

So all in all, a bet could do a lot of good things. Also, MP2 may notice you value-betting a weak hand on the river and may end up paying off a river value bet from you later that he wouldn't have otherwise.

jason_t · #5 12-01-2005, 12:30 AM

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I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

QTip · #6 12-01-2005, 12:32 AM

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I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

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Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

CardSharpCook · #7 12-01-2005, 12:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

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Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

I don't like betting this river, but that IS close. There are many hands that have been scared into submission by the flsuh board and while you do get a lot of calls from worse hands, I think you may be surprised by a 2P hand that never raised. Let's not forget that the str8 draw either just got there or just gave someone two pair. This is a close one, but I check this down. Give me KJ/AJ, I think I'll bet it.

brettbrettr · #8 12-01-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

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I don't think its that close either, and I wouldn't play it.

QTip · #9 12-01-2005, 12:51 AM

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Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

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Would you please elaborate here?

I'm with JT on this one, especially if the players yet to act are not that aggressive PF. It seems like a mid-connector in position to some limpers is pretty nice. Wish I hadn't lost my old db, but I'm quite certain JTo was a winning hand for me in LP over my last couple hundred thousand...not that that means much.

sweetjazz · #10 12-01-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is possible, but I also think most of the value comes from BB calling with a worse hand and MP2 folding a missed draw (QT, KQ, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9, maybe even KT).

That can make betting right even though I don't think we beat half of the hands MP2 calls with. (Betting seems right to me even if we knew that MP2 won't fold a better or chopped hand.)