6.5: Sanity Check--Should I really push here?

Ortho · #1 11-23-2005, 11:47 AM

My SNGPT calcs are showing this as a push against lots and lots of ranges. My instincts tell me to fold it. I'd like your opinion. This is one of those "They're all playing really badly but nobody's being eliminated" games. I have no idea what my opponents will call with and there an awful lot of them. My push last orbit got called by the current CO with a pair of 3s in middle position. The Big stack in the BB is going to need some kind of hand. The SB and button are reasonably tight. The EP's I'm not sure about.

Math-wise, it doesn't seem to matter. I get this as a push even if they're all really loose. Game-wise, they're just as desparate as I am, right? So maybe that means I shouldn't push. But they don't know how desparate they are, so maybe that means I should. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 (t1715)
MP2 (t890)
CO (t940)
Button (t2820)
SB (t1415)
BB (t4560)
Hero (t1160)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

tigerite · #2 11-23-2005, 11:53 AM

What do you describe as 'really, really loose'? I'm not sure this is a push myself - it's probably not an awful one, but far from one I'd be thrilled at making.. and have you taken account of Stars having different payout structure?

Ortho · #3 11-23-2005, 11:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you describe as 'really, really loose'? I'm not sure this is a push myself - it's probably not an awful one, but far from one I'd be thrilled at making.. and have you taken account of Stars having different payout structure?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I've accounted for Stars structure. My own standard for really, really, loose is top 30% of hands as defaulted to by SNGPT, (22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs). If I instead use the range any pair, any ace, any 2 broadway for all of my remaining opponents (22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo), I still get this as making like 50c of the prize pool (+.8%). If any of them are any tighter (which is likely) and it makes more.

johnny005 · #4 11-23-2005, 11:59 AM

I think I might have a bit more trouble than usual pushing this hand into the Chip leader in the big blind here...

But you are about to loose 1/3rd of your stack. your next push you make after you pass the blinds is going to have little to no FE.

I Push here and hate it.

FlyWf · #5 11-23-2005, 03:56 PM

It's 6 handed and you're about to get the blinds. Push and enjoy your 40-60% chance of doubling up. If it was 4 or 5 handed, I'd fold and let the other bad players knock themselves out, but next hand some donk is going to push into you, and then in your SB there are going to be 3 limpers and you'll have T6o, and then you are the small stack and you have no FE.