Bubble survival

$5+1 on Party. Blinds 100/200.

Stacks:
MP: 3130
Button (HERO): 1595
SB: 1085
BB: 2190

SB and BB have been playing tight and not very aggressive.

Hero is dealt [Qc 8c]

MP folds, Hero??

First off, I'm relatively new to tournaments having played most limit ring games up to this point. I've noticed I have no problem getting into the top five, but then I have problems. So, I'm trying to get some of the basics down for when I am on the bubble. So for this specific situation:

-what percent of hands I should be pushing at this point?

-Am I in all-in/fold mode here because I have less than 10BBs or would a small raise be ok (and at what point do I go into all-in/fold mode)?

-how much of a consideration is it that I have a slight lead over the small stack, specifically should I tighten way up and go for third or be very aggressive?

[GtrHtr]

- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!? If they are loose callers, a push is way -EV. With a marginal hand (and often even with a premium hand), the last thing you want is a call on the bubble.

At the low level SNGs, I usually just fold this, because they call way too often (which I don't want) and don't push enough (so I have time to wait).

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!? If they are loose callers, a push is way -EV. With a marginal hand (and often even with a premium hand), the last thing you want is a call on the bubble.

At the low level SNGs, I usually just fold this, because they call way too often (which I don't want) and don't push enough (so I have time to wait).

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the way you've sorta become my personal proof reader. Its nice.

Anyway, this isn't a -EV push anyway you look at it. The margin of EV decreases the looser the calls but is still +.5% against any 2.

Sorry you misread what I miswrote.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!? If they are loose callers, a push is way -EV. With a marginal hand (and often even with a premium hand), the last thing you want is a call on the bubble.

At the low level SNGs, I usually just fold this, because they call way too often (which I don't want) and don't push enough (so I have time to wait).

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the way you've sorta become my personal proof reader. Its nice.

Anyway, this isn't a -EV push anyway you look at it. The margin of EV decreases the looser the calls but is still +.5% against any 2.

Sorry you misread what I miswrote.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh. Guess Q8s is stronger than I thought.

And there is almost a fifth of Hero's stack in the middle.

I still like finding a better spot, but I guess I can't really argue against a push.

[citanul]

people misunderestimate how strong pretty much every hand is against pretty much every calling range. this is because people overestimate the edge a good hand has against a bad one, and over estimate the power of folding equity(2) that's equity in the pot caused by people's likelihood to fold, not the "ability to make anyone fold" definition. even players who think they've really kinda figured this stuff out mostly haven't.

c

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!? If they are loose callers, a push is way -EV. With a marginal hand (and often even with a premium hand), the last thing you want is a call on the bubble.

At the low level SNGs, I usually just fold this, because they call way too often (which I don't want) and don't push enough (so I have time to wait).

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, this makes no sense when compared to that other thread where you say reads are pointless below the 215 games.

This is a really easy push btw.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.

- This is read dependant. You should take into account your being the 3d stack and the number of BB's remaining in your stack and when the blinds go up again.

- Pushing this is +EV. How +EV it is depends on the calling standards you've been able to ID through your reads. If they are loose callers, the +EV edge is huge.

- Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?!? If they are loose callers, a push is way -EV. With a marginal hand (and often even with a premium hand), the last thing you want is a call on the bubble.

At the low level SNGs, I usually just fold this, because they call way too often (which I don't want) and don't push enough (so I have time to wait).

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, this makes no sense when compared to that other thread where you say reads are pointless below the 215 games.



[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I said. Jeez.

What I said was "Most decisions are not opponent-specific read-based". This statement is simply and obviously true.

The above post happens to be one that I think is read-based. As are many of the posts to this forum, because the easy decisions don't generally get posted.

Just to make it clear, I get as many reads as I can 8-tabling. Sometimes those reads are useful. Often they are not, and I go an entire SnG playing my standard strategy *for that buyin.* (Note that a buyin-specific strategy is not the same as an opponent-specific read.)

Now everybody leave me alone, it's almost Thanksgiving. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I tried that. Played 30 $5/1s and had an ROI of around 50%, went to the $10/1s and immediately lost 10 straight, so I stepped back down. Maybe variance, but it certainly hurt my confidence.

So what percent of hands should I be looking to push in this spot? Top 40% or so?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- Don't play the 6s, the rake is the same at the 11s.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I tried that. Played 30 $5/1s and had an ROI of around 50%, went to the $10/1s and immediately lost 10 straight, so I stepped back down. Maybe variance, but it certainly hurt my confidence.

So what percent of hands should I be looking to push in this spot? Top 40% or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play the 5s until you have the bankroll/comfort level for the 10s. It's no big deal.

Top 40% is way too many to push at the 5's, in my opinion. See my other post for the reason.