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#24
10-16-2005, 11:12 AM
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Re: Aces checkraised twice? 2/4
Here's my opinion on this hand:
1. Our hand is good enough to merit putting in 4 big bets on the last two streets; villain's checkraise if quite likely to mean either top pair, some kind of weird draw/bluff/semi-bluff, or a two pair against which we have tons of outs. Even after the turn check-raise, we have substantial equity in this hand, and I have no reason to believe that equity will decrease until villain does something to suggest it is lower than I thought (like check-raise the river). 2. Therefore, we should decide on a line that tends to get in that many bets. Calling down is probably just a little bit on the weak side here; it is certainly not horrible, but my intuition is that getting in an extra bet is going to be +EV in the long-run (this will vary greatly depending on your read of your opponent). Our two options are: -Three-betting the turn and betting the river (probably with the intent of folding to a turn cap OR a river check-raise). -Calling the turn with the intent of raising the river if the river card is not very scary, and folding to a river three-bet. I think there are arguments for both here. The first line is better in that it tends to get a bet out of an opponent that is drawing or something like that. The second line is better in that you are very unlikely to be three-bet on the end, even by many hands you are beating, and don't risk having to fold to a turn cap and forgo outs (particularly against two pair). These are both significant considerations and my decision between the two would largely depend on my read of villain's aggressiveness. I like line two (raising the river) a lot against an aggro opponent who might cap the turn light and who'll usually bet into me on the river, even with a missed draw or something. 
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#25
10-16-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Aces checkraised twice? 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
Our two options are: -Three-betting the turn and betting the river (probably with the intent of folding to a turn cap OR a river check-raise). -Calling the turn with the intent of raising the river if the river card is not very scary, and folding to a river three-bet. I think there are arguments for both here. [/ QUOTE ] There can be no argument for either line. [ QUOTE ] The first line is better in that it tends to get a bet out of an opponent that is drawing or something like that. The second line is better in that you are very unlikely to be three-bet on the end, even by many hands you are beating, and don't risk having to fold to a turn cap and forgo outs (particularly against two pair). These are both significant considerations and my decision between the two would largely depend on my read of villain's aggressiveness. I like line two (raising the river) a lot against an aggro opponent who might cap the turn light and who'll usually bet into me on the river, even with a missed draw or something [/ QUOTE ] So what if he'll bet the river with a missed draw. He won't call your raise with it. And if he'll cap the turn light, why would you fold to a turn cap? Also, remember, this is against an unknown.
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#27
10-16-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: Aces checkraised twice? 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why isn't 78s plausable? And K9s as well. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think many players open limp 78 or K9. [ QUOTE ] KQ probably would have raise preflo. KJ might have, making it less likely. The others are definetly possible. [/ QUOTE ] KQ should raise PF, but often doesn't at this game. I think KJ is very likely here. [ QUOTE ] Underpairs will fold to a 3-bet. If we just call however, we will get them to bet the river quite often. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I actually agree on this...not sure why i put it in there. [/ QUOTE ] For the same reason that KQo doesn't raise preflop, 78 and K9 will be open limited. You're contradicting yourself. To the owner of the most talked about Ipod Mini ever: I think you probably win more and lose less with your line. Absent reads, I pay off the river c/r because I hate folding.
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#29
10-16-2005, 06:32 PM
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Re: Aces checkraised twice? 2/4
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't think many players open limp 78 or K9. KQ should raise PF, but often doesn't at this game. I think KJ is very likely here. [/ QUOTE ] For the same reason that KQo doesn't raise preflop, 78 and K9 will be open limited. You're contradicting yourself. [/ QUOTE ]
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#30
10-16-2005, 06:35 PM
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Re: Aces checkraised twice? 2/4
3-bet the turn. At the 2/4 game this isn't even a close decision.
When you post - stop the action after the turn check-raise next time. There wouldn't be near the debate there has been on a turn 3-bet if we wouldn't have seen the river action.
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