A strategic question: make a negative ev push?

DMACM · #1 10-14-2005, 02:05 PM

50/100

bb 2735
sb 1025
btn 1515
hero 845
utg 1880

your hand a2o. Does anyone push here to increase their fold equity? Or does having 8bbs outweigh that factor?

citanul · #2 10-14-2005, 02:07 PM

what you dont' think that with 700 chips post blinding you'll have about the same folding equity as you either have now with 850 or will have post stealing with 1100, ie, 850 post paying blinds?

this is dumb. the reason to push here if it's -ev would be if not pushing is more -ev.

DMACM · #3 10-14-2005, 02:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

the reason to push here if it's -ev would be if not pushing is more -ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this please?

citanul · #4 10-14-2005, 02:32 PM

sure.

i haven't done any icm work or anything like that, but the only reason that i would push in this particular spot if i thought that pushing was -ev is if i thought that not pushing was worse. that should be fairly intuitive.

since in this spot i'm willing to define the two situations as "pushing" and "folding," and folding can clearly cost you ev in certain situations, i'm only pushing if the ev of folding is greater than the ev of folding, (or at least if i think that it is) and i'm only folding if i think the ev of folding is greater than the ev of pushing.

ie, in all situations, i seek to make the most highly ev play (well, not all, but that's neither here nor there).

valenzuela · #5 10-14-2005, 02:35 PM

ill explain what citanul meant very briefly:
pushing is -x
folding is <-x

Shillx · #6 10-14-2005, 02:52 PM

It is correct to take -EV plays when you will be forced into lager -EV plays later. The catch is that you can skip the later play by going broke in an earlier one. So if you made a $100 bet with someone laying 3:1 on a coinflip to be held tomorrow, you should lay 3:2 today if that is the last $100 to your name. A common situation in an SNG would be as follows...

You have T500 and everyone else has T1500. Blinds are 50/100 and you are in the CO.

One fold and you look at 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You should push if their calling ranges are reasonably tight (say Ax/pairs). If you knew that you would get Q5o the next hand (and had to push that), you should still push now eventhough you are losing 0.6% by doing so (you lose 0.9% by waiting and pushing). If you bust out now, you don't have to push the next hand so it is correct to take the lesser -EV gamble now. If you knew that you would get AA next hand you obviously wouldn't push 53o now.

Brad

Your hand doesn't really apply since you have plenty of chips to fold now. While it might be correct to push it, it surely isn't because you have to take -EV gambles yet.

citanul · #7 10-14-2005, 02:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ill explain what citanul meant very briefly:
pushing is -x
folding is <-x

[/ QUOTE ]

kid's good, what can i say.

DMACM · #8 10-14-2005, 03:14 PM

Ive been running bad over a few hundred and I sensed I was doing something wrong. I was spending a lot of time with SNGPT going over tournys. Im pretty sure this was my problem, I thought it was preservation of FE. Cant tell you how much I appreciate the responses citanul, shillix and valenzuela.