Taking NPA advice too far?

Tom Spec · #1 06-17-2004, 09:29 AM

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (14 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB
Main Pot: 16 BB, between CO and UTG. > Pot won by UTG (16 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Jd Qc (straight, king high).
CO shows Ks Th (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: UTG wins 16 BB. 

So after reading all this "why you aren't crushing..." business I'm feeling pretty guilty about how soft I've been playing. Is this a bad raise on the flop? On the flop my thinking was something along the lines of "well I'm not ahead right now, but the pot is big and if I raise I'll give myself a better chance of winning it." By the turn I'm thinking I can look for a Jack at 12-1. Don't tell me raising is a good idea here too!

SlantNGo · #2 06-17-2004, 09:35 AM

You're raising on a gutshot straight draw? You have 4 clean outs on the jacks, and possibly 3 outs on the aces although I doubt hitting an ace will win you this hand. So you have 4 outs, and you're raising. If you decide to chase this draw because of the pot size, you want to keep as many people in as possible and pay as little as you can to see the next card. A call here I can understand, but not a raise.

Raiser · #3 06-17-2004, 09:40 AM

Hey Tom.

This is a bad raise on the flop. You raised before the flop. UTG doesn't care and bets into you. He's almost certainly ahead of you here. Of course, the pot is big enough to call and hope to hit your Jack.

chief444 · #4 06-17-2004, 09:42 AM

I think this flop raise is OK. It will often buy you position, get you a possible free look at the river, and may help clean up your Ace outs.

Tom Spec · #5 06-17-2004, 09:42 AM

Yeah it looks like the raise is not so great here. I've got this guy on my shoulder lately and every time my mouse goes near the call button he says "hey, why don't you raise instead."

ZootMurph · #6 06-17-2004, 09:46 AM

OK... you raised preflop showing strength... on the flop, someone bets into you. Looking at the flop, there is no flush draw. That leaves 3 possible hands that UTG could have... Straight with QJ, two pair with KT, K9, or T9, or something else that he is bluffing with. Normally, a King would just check and call you down, and any other hand would check and call or fold.

So, if you think he's bluffing, the raise is fine as long as you plan on folding to a three bet.

However, the best play here is to call as you have a gutshot nut straight. If he bets again and you don't improve...fold. Don't hold onto hands just because you raised preflop. And don't raise into a bet in a situation like this unless you think you can win it right there...

Tom Spec · #7 06-17-2004, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So, if you think he's bluffing, the raise is fine as long as you plan on folding to a three bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even I know that folding to a 3-bet would be awful with my nut draw.

Ed Miller · #8 06-17-2004, 02:37 PM

...here's a quick concept it seems many of you do not really understand:

It is a lot harder to get a field of players to fold for two cold when the board contains THREE HIGH CARDS. These boards give everyone under the sun a pair or a straight draw. When you raise, you should expect still to see the turn four-handed or so.

Tom Spec · #9 06-17-2004, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...here's a quick concept it seems many of you do not really understand:

It is a lot harder to get a field of players to fold for two cold when the board contains THREE HIGH CARDS. These boards give everyone under the sun a pair or a straight draw. When you raise, you should expect still to see the turn four-handed or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying a call is better in this spot (on the flop)?

blackaces13 · #10 06-17-2004, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this flop raise is OK. It will often buy you position, get you a possible free look at the river, and may help clean up your Ace outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, why is no one talking about position or the Ace?