Flush > Full House?

[dfscott]

I've been losing with full houses more frequently than I expect to lately, so I started doing some investigation into my PT stats. I discovered the following (stats are based on 11K hands):

Full House
Got it 70 times -- won 83% averaging 6.2BB/hand.

Flush
Got it 80 times -- won 89% averaging 7.4BB/hand.

Straight
Got it 70 times -- won 74% averaging 5.2BB/hand.

Trips
Got it 70 times -- won 83% averaging 6.2BB/hand.

(I threw the last two in there just for comparison.)

Is this a statistical aberration or representative of other people's stats as well? Intuitively, I would expect to win more with the better hands, but I'm thinking that the nature of the boat (i.e., requiring a paired board) might put people on alert and makes them more willing to fold. I also feel that I'm more confident betting agressively with a low boat than I am with a low flush, so it may be my poor play that is costing me. Perhaps I should be calling more and raising less w/o the nuts?

[ArchAngel71857]

11,000 hand is not enough to make any conclusions. I have 20,000 hands. According to PT, the strength of hands by win % is KK, AA, JJ, QQ, AKo, AQs, TT.

And if people fold when the board is paired, you still win the pot and it will go down as a win. (I think).

-AA

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
11,000 hand is not enough to make any conclusions.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point exactly -- that why I was asking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 20,000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you willing to share your info?

[ QUOTE ]
According to PT, the strength of hands by win % is KK, AA, JJ, QQ, AKo, AQs, TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're mixing apples and oranges. I believe that there is a value for X where X is sufficient for information about final hands but is not be sufficient for information about starting hands.

[ QUOTE ]
And if people fold when the board is paired, you still win the pot and it will go down as a win. (I think)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't you count that? You drag the pot either way.

[ArchAngel71857]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And if people fold when the board is paired, you still win the pot and it will go down as a win. (I think)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Why wouldn't you count that? You drag the pot either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

YOu said something about when the board pairs people are more apt to fold. i thought you were implying that PT wasn't counting this as win.


As far as my hand rankings go, I was illustrating that 20,000 hands is still too little to tell much of anything for broad conclusions, You need about 45-50,000. I had never really looked this up, but I am at work and can't get to poker tracker right now, I will post it later.


-AA

[Jeff]

I'm a lot more apt to play a flush if it has an ace or king, I won't fold a lower flush most of the time, but I just don't get them that often as I try to position myself into a place where I have the absolute nut for that hand. If the board does not pair, and there are not three flushed cards within the range of a straight, you can not be beaten with an ace high flush.

On a paired board, or a board with two pairs, there are numerous full house possibilites. You hold KK, your opponent AA. Flop comes AK4. Crazy betting ensues. Turn comes 4. Crazy betting ensues. Some other guy shows off pocket 4s for the win.


So, A high flushes on a good board don't get sucked out. Full houses get beaten by bigger full houses (trips on the board, PPs or cards paird with other board cards - JJJ flops, you hold AQ, turn comes a queen, you go like crazy, and pocket kings beats you.



So, I believe the best hand for you to get in holdem is the nut flush. Even with a straight flush draw on the table, it's unlikely, whereas with a full house there are many more ways you can be beaten.

Well, barring a royal flush, of course, and the also improbable 4 of a kind, ace high flushes are relatively common in comparison.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a lot more apt to play a flush if it has an ace or king, I won't fold a lower flush most of the time, but I just don't get them that often as I try to position myself into a place where I have the absolute nut for that hand. If the board does not pair, and there are not three flushed cards within the range of a straight, you can not be beaten with an ace high flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've gotten to the heart of what I was trying to say in a much more eloquent fashion. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

When you play AXs, you generally going after a nut flush. If it looks like you're not going to get it, you can dump it.

OTOH, people don't play pairs hoping to make full houses. If they partially hit, they're much harder to get away from. For example:

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (5.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.70 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11.70 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font>

See what I mean about going too far with full houses? I know I should've just called here, but I was hoping against hope that UTG was betting the flush [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[zram21]

[ QUOTE ]
See what I mean about going too far with full houses? I know I should've just called here, but I was hoping against hope that UTG was betting the flush [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

You will also find you are going to lose a full house far more often when the set is on the board than when it is in your hand.

[ArchAngel71857]

Here you go:

Straight: 71/85 (83.33%)

Flush: 64/77 (8289%

Full House: 73/85 (76.90%)


20,000 hands

-AA

[Blarg]

I'll just throw mine in the mix for comparison fun. Still too small a sample, but it's funny how my sample being off shows the flaws in your sample as being representative of how things should work.

FULL HOUSE -- 30/32 for 93.75% wins
FLUSH -- 22/29 for 75.85% wins
STRAIGHT -- 39/46 for 84.78% wins

I actually won far more with a straight than a flush!

Which I guess goes to show how unreliable small samples can be. My sample size is only 8,744.

I think there's a lot to be said for flushes having a naturally high win rate for many people, too. Not all, though. Some people play any two suited cards, or just play much lower level suited cards, while others won't play nearly as many flushes unless they have a chance to be the nuts.

So some people may get a lot more flushes, and maybe even win more money than the tighest players, but the tighter players will win a higher percentage of the time when they DO go for flushes.

Same thing could be said for full houses, too. Some people play any pair, and some smaller subset play any pair beyond the flop according to whatever criteria satisfies them. Others rarely play small pairs, and some don't even bother with medium pairs much unless they can get in really cheaply.

So...the people who play pairs more loosely, when they do hit trips and go on to make full houses of them, are going to lose a greater percentage of the time even when they make that full house than are those who tend to play fewer low and medium pairs and/or push them beyond the flop less frequently. It's a lot easier to get beat with 5's full than queens full.

Maybe you play a lot of pairs aggressively and get more than your fair share of full houses? But much worse ones than some people?

You have more than twice as many full houses as I do, 70 compared to my 32, but you don't have anywhere near more than twice as many hands as I do -- you have 11k versus my 8,477. With about 77% of your hands played, you have less than a third more played than me but well over twice as many fullhouses.

Yet you have a far worse percentage of wins than I do, and a far worse average won. I have only two losses with full houses out of 32, whereas you have quite a bundle out of your 70. And your big bets won per hand is 6.2, whereas mine is, counting all 32 of mine so the losses get factored in properly, is 11.29 big bets per full house. Take out the two I lost and the BB/win jumps to 12.04.

Interesting to look over and see how different our stats are, but I think it probably is meaningful despite the tiny sample sizes we both have.

It seems to suggest to me that I'm a lot tighter player than you are(and I am pretty tight). When I play a hand all the way out, I stand a much better chance of winning with it because I start with better cards. My WON$AtSD% is 60.92. So my full houses will tend to be higher than yours. That's why I've gotten so many fewer, and make so much more when I do, almost twice as much.

Then again, there's a lot to be said for getting more than twice as many full houses as I do in only one third more time played, too. I could probably stand to play a lot more hands. I'm not sure if you could stand to play fewer or not; I have no idea and no evidence on that account.

[MicroBob]

p-tracker stats like this need to be interpreted properly.

the flushes that you are losing are sometimes when the board pairs but also when the board is a 4-flush and you have the 3 of that suit.

the full-houses that you are losing are most likely when you see the flop with 22 and it comes out AAA.
or when the board comes TTTJJ.... you don't really think of it as 'gee..i have a full house' if you are holding 72...but you do even though there are a bnch of hands that have you beat and you are only staying around in hopes of splitting the pot.


so the flushes and full-houses that are 'losers' in your p-tracker aren't normally the hands that you think of as your stronger flushes and full-houses.