Gutshot + overcard + Backdoor = bet?

Ralph Wiggum · #1 09-09-2004, 12:36 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls.
Did I make the right play?

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB
Main Pot: 4.50 BB, won by BB.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to BB.

Jeff · #2 09-09-2004, 12:48 PM

8 outs in a 2.5BB pot, out of position with three weak draws? I'd fold this one on the flop. If the pot were, say, 4BB, or if you had the button, then you could bet this a lot more easily.

colgin · #3 09-09-2004, 12:54 PM

Ralph Wiggum,

I only like this play if there is a reasonable chance of picking up the pot right there. Without defining "reasonable", at Party $2/4, against typical players, I think that is highly unlikely. Accordingly, I don't like this as a semi-bluff and this is not nearly a big enough draw to be a value bet. I would check and hope for the free card. If it is bet behind you and everyone calls you probably have odds to peel one off with your approximately 7 outs.

All the best,

Colgin

Ralph Wiggum · #4 09-09-2004, 12:56 PM

So if I only had 2 opponents, would this bet be ok? In that scenario, I probably don't have the odds to draw.

RayGarlington · #5 09-09-2004, 01:00 PM

after the flop, if you figure 4 outs for your gutshot, 1.5 outs for the overcard, and 1.5 for the backdoor flush, you've got 7 outs or about 6:1 against... you are being offered 5:1 which i'd fold. I think that Axs (if x is <9)isn't much good except for flush making. It seems everytime I use it for high card it gets kicked, so am inclined to not count it as an overcard in this situation.

colgin · #6 09-09-2004, 01:06 PM

I like your bet much better against only two opponents, neither of whom has shown strength. In that situation, your bet makes sense as a semi-bluff. Of course, if you are up against total calling stations then I would still probably check.

Michael Davis · #7 09-09-2004, 01:24 PM

You made the right play until you folded on the turn.

-Michael

Ralph Wiggum · #8 09-09-2004, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You made the right play until you folded on the turn.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate? I'm getting 1:5.5 (pot odds) on the turn, and I'm most likely behind with no flush draw.

Michael Davis · #9 09-09-2004, 01:33 PM

Alright give me a second I hate doing math but I'll try to do some sort of half-assed estimates.

-Michael

Michael Davis · #10 09-09-2004, 01:41 PM

Okay, I don't feel like working out exact math because it's too hard.

You've got four outs to an almost certain winner. And if these don't win, your opponent has 56, which means you are already winning.

You've got three outs to a hand that is going to win a lot (ace).

I think these hands win so much, they're worth about six outs.

You've got four outs to a hand that has a small chance of winning (fives). I rate this as one out, and now you have seven outs total.

Occasionally, your ace high will take the pot as your opponent will give up his busted draw or dry bluff on the river. This is admittedly only worth about 1/2 out, as you really can't call on the river and he might follow through even if he has nothing.

So I've got you at 7.5 outs with 46 cards left (I've cut one of your opponent's cards) You are getting about 6.5 to 1, which wih implied odds means you are pretty close to correct to call. Since you don't pay off the river when you miss, but probably get two bets if you spike a gutshot, it's close.

Given all that, I've made a lot of assumptions that might be a little too favorable for your hand. This is a marginal spot, no doubt, and I probably lean towards folding now myself. But it's close.

-Michael