It must be 'Two Overpairs' Time

[numeri]

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I think it's a calling station.

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Wow, that was obvious. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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I agree that I usually raise preflop, but in a spot like this, calling isn't too bad.

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You're right - it's close. But against an UTG limper, a calling station, and the BB, this should probably be a raise. Against tighter players preflop, it's much closer.

[PygmyHero]

numeri, Wookie's right, CS = calling station. Sorry that wasn't clear since it's important to the read.

As for my read on BB, I should have also said that he will continue to bet his TP on the turn if no one shows aggression, regardless of the turn card. I saw enough hands where this occurred that I was confident he would bet the turn for me, even with a marginal holding. That is why I thought I'd be able to trap the whole field for two on the turn.

I realize that raising PF is the 'default' play here, and by not doing so, I give up some EV. But by under-representing my hand I think that I am able to regain that EV and more when the flop hits me (e.g. misses everyone else). I felt like I could get more value out of the hand by just limping PF, given the soft table. I would be interested to hear your thoughts in that regard.

At the time, I felt that I could build a much larger pot than if I had just raised PF and bet every street. Now I see that it is closer than I thoght.

Preflop: I raise, everyone calls (a reasonable assumption), for 8 SB
Flop: I bet, BB and Button call, making it 11 SB.
I do not know if UTG would have called here, I believe he would have folded if I had shown that much strength.
Turn: I bet, BB and Button call, making it 8.5 BB.
River: I bet, BB calls, Button folds a busted flush or overcard draw, maing it 10.5 BB

The pot was 12 BB as I played it, so even if UTG calls the flop, that still leaves the raise, bet, bet, bet line one BB shy of the line I took.

So I guess my question is, assuming my line is worth 1 BB more, how appreciable a difference is that, given that I can't assume that BB will hit the flop enough to bet it for me, etc.?

[bnorthro]

I think raising preflop is good, but just calling isn't bad, probably a toss up. UTG could be limping with 2 big cards (how passive is he? If he's real aggressive or LAG, his limp could mean he's got junk) and raising to thin the field with a vulnerable hand is good, but it's not gauranteed in this case.

I think you have to bet the flop. Your hand is vulnerable to overcards, and it's going to really suck to give something like J2 a free look at the turn if it gets checked through, when he 'might' have folded for a bet on the flop.

The way the hand worked out was nice, but I probably wouldn't play 99 this way too often on a low flop.

Now if you know that BB is like always going to bet, I like a flop C/R and get as much in when you're ahead. Sure, it bloats the pot for drawing hands, but I really don't think these guys think about those things.

Just my 2cents.