Can you let this go?

[ZootMurph]

Later stages of B&M tournament. Blinds 300/600 with 50 ante. Full table. Big stack in tournament is two places to my right. He's been happily pushing the table around. Two tables away from the money. I have about 23k chips (third at table). He has about 60k.

Big stack raises to 3k from MP3. I'm on the button with KQs. I call hoping to hit a big hand and trap him into doubling me up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Flop is K94 rainbow. He checks/I check. Turn is a 7, putting two of a suit not mine on board. He checks, I bet the pot, he pushes me all in.

What the hell do I do? I'm sitting on top of the world slowplaying what I thought was the winner, and he hits me for all my chips. I'm still in OK shape if I fold...

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack raises to 3k from MP3. I'm on the button with KQs. I call hoping to hit a big hand and trap him into doubling me up

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... the "big hand" for KQ is the flop that you saw. By checking the flop behind you disguised your hand well, so I doubt he thinks you have a hand as strong as KQ on the turn. Maybe he has JJish and puts you on a lower pair or a total bluff. At that point I'm calling, and probably doubling up.

As far as preflop goes, if his regular "bully" raise is to 3k then calling is fine, but I dont see 5BBs being his regular raise. I probably get out of the way on this one.

-Kings

[SossMan]

tough spot, zoot.

I would often play it the same way you did both preflop and on the flop. There are other options on both streets, though, obviously. You likely have the best hand and you have position, so a preflop raise could be justified...the problem is that if he decides to get frisky with something like 99 or TT and push back preflop you can't call. So just calling preflop looks fine, since you have position and flops should be a little easier to play with this hand.

It's a nice flop for you. You are likely in a way ahead, way behind situation, since there are no OESD or 4 flushes on board on the flop. He likey has 5 or less outs, or you need runner runner.

I think the check behind on the flop is fine. You should be able to pick off a turn bluff from him.

The turn check raise is really odd from him. If he flopped or turned a set, would he really go for the check raise twice with more draws now on board? It seems that he would go for the flop check raise and if that didn't work, then bet out the turn. You have not shown any aggression at any point during the hand and he has no reason to believe that you will bet on the turn.
I smell a big semibluff from him here. He probably thinks that you are stabbing at the pot because it was checked around on the flop and he showed weakness by checking the turn.
He could have picked up a pair and a flush draw or a pair and a gutshot, or even just a pair. Of course, he could have flopped or turned a set, but it just doesn't feel right.
What's more is that you are getting paid 33k:14k (about 2.5:1). Winning this pot would put you in fantastic position to take advantage of the weak bubble play about to occur. He only has to be bluffing like 30% of the time for the call to be right.

I like a call in this spot.

-SossMan

[schwza]

it'd be helpful if you said pot sizes so we didn't have to all do it.

there's 7.4k preflop, so you bet 7.4k and he pushes. you have 12.6k after betting. if you call, the total pot will be 47.4k. you only have to be right somewhat over 1/4 to make it a call.

obviously, it'd be helpful to know how exactly the bully has been bullying. has he been aggressive only pre-flop? only pre-flop with a continuation on the flop?

not knowing that, i think you've got to call. you're likely going home, but the pot is laying you a very juicy price at this point.

i'm not good about doing this, but before you bet you should decide what you're going to do if he pushes. it might have been a better line to bet 5k and then plan on folding to a push.

[Msogard]

Nice post.

[MLG]

I love the way you played this hand and would take the same line. You have to call here because you have pretty severely underrepresneted your hand. If he's good enough to check a monster twice here, he's getting my chips.

[ZootMurph]

Sorry, EverettKings, I didn't mention his raising pattern... In later position, he would generally open raise a big amount 4x-7x, he varied it. So this is about normal for him.

Against a normal stack, I would have reraised, but I was pretty sure I could unlock a big number of those chips if I could flop well. I believe, in this situation, the turn check behind is standard, since this is a big stack and he is being aggressive and will probably bet the turn no matter what. However, when he checks again, I really have to bet just in case he has that flush draw. His reraise on me completely catches me off guard.

[ QUOTE ]
The turn check raise is really odd from him. If he flopped or turned a set, would he really go for the check raise twice with more draws now on board? It seems that he would go for the flop check raise and if that didn't work, then bet out the turn. You have not shown any aggression at any point during the hand and he has no reason to believe that you will bet on the turn.
I smell a big semibluff from him here. He probably thinks that you are stabbing at the pot because it was checked around on the flop and he showed weakness by checking the turn.
He could have picked up a pair and a flush draw or a pair and a gutshot, or even just a pair. Of course, he could have flopped or turned a set, but it just doesn't feel right.
What's more is that you are getting paid 33k:14k (about 2.5:1). Winning this pot would put you in fantastic position to take advantage of the weak bubble play about to occur. He only has to be bluffing like 30% of the time for the call to be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Soss... I totally agree with your thinking, and I was initially thinking precisely the same way. However, my problem was that I was playing tight, solid poker and he HAD to know I had a big hand to call his preflop raise and bet out on the turn. He's basically risking a third of his chips and the chip lead on this bet, knowing I have odds to call if I have anything.

I'll give others a chance to read and post their thoughts before I put up the results.

[ZootMurph]

schwza... sorry about that. There's 1400 in the pot before his bet. It's 3k to me preflop with 4400 in the pot. On the turn, there's 7400 in the pot and I bet 7500. I have 12,500 chips left after my bet. He asks me how much I have left, I count, then he counts out 20k and puts me all in. I still have 20 BB if I fold here.

[Seadood228]

I would have checked the turn as well. There aren't too many hands that will pay you off on the turn AND river that you are ahead of. Your pair of kings isn't too vulnerable, so I don't think a free card is all that risky. He could have a draw, but argueably a player on a draw would have bet in this situation after you'd shown weakness.

I think this is the play if your opponent has any trickiness in him.

As the hand played out, I guess I'm one of the few who think he's slowplaying a monster here. I'd fold.

[pokerraja]

I've seen some slow play TPTK all the way to the river. Yuck. Is he the type to slow play his AK here? I think its a close call here. Usually I would call this "strong--weakness" bet.