$55: BB Flops trips no kicker, flush draw comes on turn

[downtown]

PP $55

Need a line check here.

Turn: I don't think I get called by anything that I am ahead of, so I checked with the intention of folding to some sort of reasonable bet.

River: I played this hand so weak, meh. Blocking bet maybe?

Thoughts on flop, turn, and river appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t970)
UTG (t895)
UTG+1 (t1010)
MP1 (t2255)
MP2 (t885)
MP3 (t810)
CO (t925)
Button (t1275)
SB (t975)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t30, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t150) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t75</font>, UTG calls t75, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t300) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (t300) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t225</font>, Hero calls t225.

Final Pot: t750

[fnord_too]

I probably bet the river, about half the pot. If villain is aggressive, I think a check call is good. Turn - what can you do? Being oop sucks. (Actually that last bit goes for the flop and river, too.)

[tigerite]

Your line was perfect if you wanted to induce the bluff.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Your line was perfect if you wanted to induce the bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

from what?

[tigerite]

I never said he was right to induce the bluff [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Could be absolutely anything, you often see a pocket pair with a line like this. After all "two aces are out, he can't have the third". That's how the donks think, anyway.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I never said he was right to induce the bluff [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Could be absolutely anything, you often see a pocket pair with a line like this. After all "two aces are out, he can't have the third". That's how the donks think, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you mean it's a value bet? or maybe that it's wrong to give an unknown enough credit to not bet there with 88?

[schwza]

i think it's fine, expect you should check/fold the river. well, i could go either way on betting the flop too, but i think the river should definitely be a fold.

what's he going to have when he calls the flop? a flush draw, Ax, a PP like 88, or air. i don't think he has 2x utg unless maybe it's A2s.

when he checks the turn, it could still be any of these, so we don't gain much info.

when he bets the river, what could he have? he'd be dumb to bet 88 - the old "it's not a value bet or a bluff" bet. the flush draw got there, and you're behind Ax. so unless you think this is an elaborate delayed bluff with KQ or a bad bet from 88, i'd fold. i think you'll see 22, A2, or a flush most often.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's fine, expect you should check/fold the river. well, i could go either way on betting the flop too, but i think the river should definitely be a fold.

what's he going to have when he calls the flop? a flush draw, Ax, a PP like 88, or air. i don't think he has 2x utg unless maybe it's A2s.

when he checks the turn, it could still be any of these, so we don't gain much info.

when he bets the river, what could he have? he'd be dumb to bet 88 - the old "it's not a value bet or a bluff" bet. the flush draw got there, and you're behind Ax. so unless you think this is an elaborate delayed bluff with KQ or a bad bet from 88, I'd fold. i think you'll see 22, A2, or a flush most often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain could have a lot of things when he calls the flop. From his perspective, hero could have anything when he bets, including 2x or just a "someone's got it or they don't" stab with air, since he gor a free pass in the BB. He could peel one off with a middle pp and see what develops, or even some far more dubious hands (or at least call and see what develops on the flop). On the river, this bet could be a lot of things, from an ill conceived value bet, a flush, bigger trips, or a complete whiff (a lot of players feel compelled to bet when it is checked to them twice, and lot feel compelled to just check it down).

I would want a read here, some stats, but if it is the first time I have seen the palyer, and in round one we haven't seen much of him yet, I think the call is probably marginally profitable in the 55's. I think folding if the bet comes on the turn, which was his plan, is definitely right. Reads make this decision a lot easier, but my default read is "If I haven't seen you before you are probably not that good." (I quickly amend this as the STT plays out, though. After 15 or so hands I start looking at numbers if I haven't noticed anything egregious, though I temper that if the numbers are on the lag side, since it is easier to get a little rush of cards and look like a lag than it is for a lag to check and fold for 15 hands. Obviously, I have more than lag/not lag profiles, but you get the idea).

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain could have a lot of things when he calls the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

hero bet in a 5-way pot, and villain called utg with 2 people left to act and the SB still live. i highly doubt that villain’s calling here with K-high planning on taking the pot off the hero later.

i think the flop leaves villain with a monster, Ax, a flush draw, or a PP. the only real question is whether the villain will bet the river with a PP. i think that with no reason to believe otherwise, it’s best to assume that he’s smart enough to check behind and take his showdown (do you at least agree that a bet there from a PP would be dumb?)

even if we assume that he will often bet with 88 (or whatever), there are still an awful lot of hands that we’re behind, so a call is only marginally profitable at best. if i were utg, i could beat A6 100% i bet there.

In this situation I'd be more inclined to think UTG is on a flush draw, were he holding an ace he probably would've re-raised on the flop to at least see where he was at, the only other hands I could seem him playing this way would be a medium PP or a weak ace the latter is kinda unlikely since he called from UTG, and the way you played this hand I could see how on the river someone with a medium PP might take a stab at it thinking your flop bet was just a bluff.

I think the flop bet was fine, I'd bet around 150 on the turn and if I'm called I'm fairly certain I'm beat, but I think here is where you stand the best chance of picking up the pot or at least seeing where you are at, on the river you really have no idea if your hand is good or not playing it this way. The way you played it I'd still call the river bet.