Empire $200k, on the bubble, play or not?

[lacky]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

UTG (t9280)
UTG+1 (t2156)
MP1 (t7460)
MP2 (t19565)
MP3 (t3954)
CO (t5452)
Button (t10216)
Hero (t2018)
BB (t10225)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t2000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero raises all-in t2018, BB calls t1018, CO calls t18.

Flop: (t4236) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1500</font>, CO calls t1500.

Turn: (t7236) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
CO folds.

River: (t7236) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t7236

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Kh Jh (flush, king high).
Hero has Ac Ks (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: BB wins t7236. </font>

so, finished 61, 60 payed $800, never been in that situation before, need some advice.

Steve

[2005]

Well, the way you were playing before that hand, I thought you had at least KK. I think you have to decide whether you're playing for the money or to win. It seemed like you were playing for the money, so I think you probably should have folded. If you were playing for the win, you would have found a hand a while before that and not let yourself get that short. As it is, tough luck, work on your MTT game and you could be pretty good. This is a good place to learn.

Gavin

[lacky]

I went 40 or 50 hands with nothing better than Q6, 87, etc, so I had decided to just make the money rather than push crap, then hit the only decent hand I'd seen with horrible timing. Even the blind steal agianst u was with A6, then nothing even that good came. Should I have pushed with trash and hoped? I really didnt know so I was basically on the fence waiting for something decent for the last hour, then finally got it and prob should have mucked it. grrr

Steve

[Che]

Reason to fold: You've got to make the top 20 to double the $800 you're about to pick up by folding.

Reason to call: Win this and you've got 2/3 of the average stack so one more big hand will put you in contention for the whole enchilada.

So, if you don't mind busting out 40% of the time and missing out on a sure $800, then play. Otherwise, fold.

Later,
Che

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I went 40 or 50 hands with nothing better than Q6, 87, etc, so I had decided to just make the money rather than push crap,

[/ QUOTE ]

If the 87 was suited, it would have been a good hand for pushing from LP with around 5 BB's (i.e. when you still had folding equity).

[lacky]

well, I know playing for the win at all times is correct (or at least I think I know that, that could be wrong too I guess) If I had had the same hand and busted 70th i wouldn't think twice about it, 61 has me pissed beyond any normal amount i should be.

I'm also running a good fever right now so I may not be entirely sane [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Steve

[lacky]

I was utg+1, still though about it, but too many active big stacks behind me I decided.

[MicroBob]

I don't have any brilliant insights here....but I can safely say that I would have laid this down.

I'm operating under the assumption that were several shorter stacks than yours that were closer to being blinded-out.


If 60th only pays $200-$300 instead of $800 then I'm probably playing it.

But 60th pays way more than $200....and the pay-out structure is pretty flat from 60th through 10th so I think you need to lay it down.

60th pays $800.....20th pays $1700 (as does 11th).


Average stack is at $8688 right now. (530,000 / 61).

I think for purposes of this analysis we can assume that if you fold you have a 100% chance of winning $800.
If you want to be conservative you can knock it down to 95% or so.


Lets assume you are a 60% favorite if you call based on the range of hands that CO could have (he might have a pair afterall) as well as the chances that BB will correctly call much of the time with a wide range of hands (although he might fold too of course).


I have no idea if 60% is correct or not....but BB should be calling with a wide-range of hands here...and if you are up against KQ and JT or perhaps 77 and J9s or something then are hardly a lock (but obviously have a pretty good chance).


So...because the BB is likely going to play we assume 60% chance.
Meaning you have a 40% chance of getting zilch.


In the situation where you win the hand you are up to around T6000.

T6000 is 1.1% of the total chips out there where as the 'average' stack is close to 2%.
You're probably around 40th place in chips out of 60 at this point.

If you double-up here then I estimate your chances as follows:
$800 - 100%
$900 - 75%
$1100 - 50%
etc.

you have barely better than a 1.1% chance of taking the top prize (which is your current stack-size). I think you are a bit better than 1.1% because I estimate that you are a stronger player than a majority of the field.


Obviously if you fold here it's not exactly throwing in the towel for the rest of the tourney. You'll still get a chance to double-up somewhere in there (although not likely as good as AK)

If you fold the AK:
$800 - 95%-100%
$900 - 40% (a rough estimate of you successfully doubling-up on a future hand AND still lasting until 50th place)
$1100 - 20%-25%
And your chances of taking the whole thing are about 1% or less.


I'm not certain of the accuracy of my numbers or whether I'm doing this correctly or not...and obviously you don't have time to go through all of this in your head when faced iwth the decision.


but I think that, in general, the numbers seem to support what my logic would be at the table for this hand:

a 100% chance for $800 here followed by still a slim chance of making significantly better money is a better play than:

a 60% chance for $800 followed by decently better chance of making significantly better money.


the difference between T2000 and T6000 is not exactly 'marginal' for making the 'significantly' better money.

It will definitely give you a better chance to finish anywhere from 20th through 50th....but the prizes there are just not high enough to make it worth it.


It does increase your chances of making it to 9th or better though.
Someone please point out to me where I am messing this up because I have a feeling I am not doing that correctly.

I tried doing more numbers where I looked at the average prize of making the final 5 as $23.8k and estimated a 10% chance of winning that if he hits the triple-up (would have 1.2% of the chips with 60 players left) but it all seems kind of screwy in my head right now because I'm tired.



Again....if 60th only pays $250 then I go ahead and go for it.
Also....if the scenario is 60th pays $800, but 50th pays $2000 then I'm much more likely to call here.


But in your situation you had a 40% chance perhaps of going away with nothing.....and tripling-up was more likely to just get you to $900 or $1100 or $1300 and wasn't going to be good enough in this situation for your chances of $30k or $48k (compared with the sure thing).


That's my admittedly weak-tight analysis.
Sorry it didn't work out for you.

But remember...you ARE having a reasonably good week regardless.



I welcome any comments pointing out how messed up my analysis is. I'm not exactly very good at this sort of stuff.

[lacky]

Sounds pretty on to me, only change is I was small blind so had 500 in already, so folding leaves me with 1500. there were at least 3 1bb or less stacks though, so i would say a fold puts me at 98%+ to make the money. Folding was the best move. I think that 2nd wednesday and having the chip lead at one point tonight messed with my thinking just enough to make me call. My actual thought as i pushed was "well, if I'm gonna have any chance in this thing I better play". I was still trying to win the thing in my mind when I had actually for all practical purposes already lost it.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I had actually for all practical purposes already lost it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rethink this.