Brier on SSH, Part II

uuDevil · #1 12-21-2004, 07:57 PM

The new article is here: Brier on SSH

The first article was discussed in this thread.

zephed56 · #2 12-22-2004, 08:43 AM

Here's hand 2 in converter format, how it played by raising the flop...

"B&M is Rigged" 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (15.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB
Result: Button wins the pot with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a straight Jack to seven.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Waiting for the turn to raise to protect your hand...

"B&M is Rigged" 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, 16BB's to the field who also have to consider an MP1 re-raise.

zephed56 · #3 12-22-2004, 11:47 AM

The following analysis could be deeply flawed, but I'm giving it a shot anyways, because I thought it was an interesting situation. If there are any errors, please point them out and call me an idiot. Here goes nuthin...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Putting them on hands
Assuming all fish opponents, they could be playing the following:

UTG and UTG+1-any low-medium pair, any broadways, not AK, a suited broadway-rag hand, medium suited connectors.

MP1-AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, any pair A-9, maybe 8's-6's, or some really weird [censored], ya never know, they are fish.

Button-Same as UTG, except toss the suited connectors, and include all pairs.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Counting Hero's Outs
Can we count outs for hero other than any King? One King is tainted due to the flush draw. How would you go about estimating Hero's "blank" outs, or equity? He clearly has blank outs, I just don't know a good way to estimate how many there are.

I think determining hero's outs is important in calculating how much hero gives up by waiting till the turn to raise...

How much do we give up?
After all, how much he gives up by waiting = (flop action-5)*(flop edge). Answer is in small bets.

We should also consider how much action we will lose on the turn by raising the flop, if we do lose some action on average, this should sway our answer a little more towards waiting . This is becoming so confusing now... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'd assume that we can average an additional 6 small bets by raising here.
Our equation can be changed to:
(6)*(flop edge) = EV in SB's.

I'm gonna list our EV with different % edges here, and whoever wants to estimate it, look your EV up here.

Edge EV
15%-.9
20%-1.2
25%-1.5
30%-1.8
35%-2.1
40%-2.4
45%-2.7
50%-3.0
55%-3.3
60%-3.6
65%-3.9

Any errors made here? Let me know.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How much do we gain?
We also need to estimate how many outs we can clean up. Anyone want to give it a shot?

What he gains on the turn is = (cleaned up outs/46)*(pot size). Answer is in big bets.

For convenience, we can rearrange this equation into the following:
(pot size/46)*(cleaned up outs)
Plugin the pot size. Is 16BB correct? Or is it 14BB?
(16/46)*(outs)
(.35)*(outs)

Let's compute how much this play gains according to how many outs are "cleaned up".

Outs-BB
1----.35
2----.70
3----1.05
4----1.39
5----1.74
6----2.09
7----2.43
8----2.78
9----3.13
10---3.48

Does this seem right?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's say hero has about 40% equity on the flop.
By waiting until the turn to raise, he sacrifices about 1 BB (2.1 SB's).
This means that if he can clean up 4 or more outs on the turn, than it is worth it to wait.

I'm sure I'm missing some details somewhere.

cowboyzfan · #4 12-22-2004, 01:17 PM

part 3 is out now

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...php?a_id=14457

And Sklansky won a WPT event!

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...php?a_id=14430

uuDevil · #5 12-22-2004, 08:39 PM

Thanks for the link.

Brier is making good counterarguments to the book advice in these articles. However, he doesn't actually advise the contrary position.

In this 3rd article, where SSH advises calling with a flush draw when the turn card pairs the top flop card and an opponent who had called the flop now raises, he says the decision is close. When the board is double paired on the end and you are again bet into, SSH advises calling, but Brier does not actually use the f-word.

In the 2nd article, in hand 1 (where you flop top pr 9's, no kicker in the BB and are bet into by the SB, the pot is small, and there are players to act after you), he gives arguments for raising rather than folding (book advice). This is interesting since he is frequently accused of folding too much. In hand 2 (where the pot is big and you do not raise the flop in order to protect your pocket pr. of K's on the turn), he says the advice is "interesting," but does not say it is wrong.

He finishes the 2nd article by saying "The authors have not shown that the increased likelihood of winning the pot compensates for not raising on the flop. Where is the dividing line here?" Well, he doesn't tell you where it is either.

A prior question is "How do you draw the line?" Brier doesn't completely answer this question either, but he does do a good job of pointing out things to consider. Among these is what you think of your opponents. The general assumption in SSH is that a typical opponent is loose and plays poorly. If you change this assumption, then you have to move the line too. Telling us where it should be against any possible opponent may be more than we can expect from a book (or article).