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#21
12-13-2005, 06:03 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
First off I raise the flop to set up the free card play. You happened to get a free card that was really free here.
Then I'd bet the turn if I thought I had a decent chance of getting a fold, otherwise I'd take the freebie. Usually I'm betting, you often won't get called if a fourth flush card comes anyway, and if you bet here, you often won't have to pay anything to see a showdown UI anyway if thats any help. 
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#22
12-13-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. [/ QUOTE ] It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play. If we estimate that we have 10 outs and we're behind, we have 21 % equity. So the possibility of a check-raise is the difference, and we check through.
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#23
12-13-2005, 07:13 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks. [ QUOTE ] Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board. [/ QUOTE ] Passive and passive... He's not aggressive, but I'm not sure I'd consider 55 VPIP and 0.9 AF passive. With a bit of luck his true AF may be even higher given that it's only 80 hands. The opposite can be true as well, but with only 80 hands I'd like to consider him a loose unknown and mine more hands/see him play before I judge him. I agree that he's VERY likely to have something. As for the call on the flop. The pot is giving us 7:1, we're closing the action with two overcards and two backdoor draws, one which may not be good if it hits. This is still not enough to peel? [ QUOTE ] Turn checkraise: Fold. Pretty certain that he has the flush. That means 2-4 of your nine outs are dead because he is holding them or they complete a straight flush. Plus there is a nominal 22% chance that one of his spades is the king but given that he seems confident and he coldcalled preflop without AQ the real chance he has the king is probably over 50%. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not much of a hand reader, I am weak though. I still wouldn't put him on a flush with 90 % certainty after the action so far. He may have the flush, he may not. I have no problem seeing an unknown take this line with two pair or a set. Heck, even a very weirdly played A-high! I agree that flush is the most likely hand, but I wouldn't consider it the only possible hand until I know more about this loose opponent. When we're check-raised at the turn we're getting 7:1 from the pot, and there's quite a few combinations of spades that he can hold. Saying that his chance of holding the K of spades is over 50 % is just plain wrong. This guy is LOOSE. He's the kind of player that cold-calls with any two suited. I'd expect to win very often if the river brings the fourth spade. All that being said, you're probably right regarding everything. I'm the one lacking experience at the tables. Oh, and the turn problem could've been avoided if I had done the right thing and checked behind on the turn, which, imo, is a no-brainer.
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#24
12-13-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play. [/ QUOTE ] I must learn to include the meaning of those numbers. It's WSD and W$SD. How often the opponent goes to showdown and how often he wins at showdown.
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#25
12-13-2005, 07:22 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play [/ QUOTE ] I assume that "break even" means equally good compared to the alternative play of checking? In that case there is no reason to believe your statement is true. There is no easy way to determine the correctness of a bet based on fold probability. It is true that if we bet and he folds at least 20% of the time we have at least zero EV. But checking has a positive EV and probably quite a large EV based on our apparent outs and possible best hand with position. We will often win this pot after checking. Can betting earn us even more than that? Maybe, but that's what the whole thread is about. No shortcuts to the answer. Don't confuse this situation with two other situations where your type of reasoning does apply: 1. You have the effective nut low on the river. If you don't bet you surely lose. 2. Your only reasonable alternative to betting is check-folding and the chance of receiving a free card is nil. If you don't bet you surely lose.
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#26
12-13-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks. [ QUOTE ] Just wanted to make sure you know that you are in the hijack this hand. Krishan
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#27
12-13-2005, 07:39 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board. [/ QUOTE ] The passive player most likely has a pair, and we are getting 7:1 immediately, closing the action. If we count our backdoor flushes as 2.5 instead of 3 (because non nut flush, and non perfect 3-card straight), and our overcards as 3.5 (that's fair, no?), then we have 6 outs. This is just enough to call, not to mention that we do have some slight implied odds, and our opponent is passive, so will occasionally give us an extra free cards (as happened here). He his passiveness also helps because he won't punish us as badly when we hit a second best hand as an agressive player would. Is the flop fold really that easy?
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#28
12-13-2005, 07:39 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
It's WSD and W$SD. [/ QUOTE ] Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size? Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect. Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions.
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#29
12-13-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: Turn action
Great posts Stellar, I think you're reasoning and thinking here is similar to mine(After my 2nd post when i considered it more and wasn't playing at prima).
I do think its a VERY close Check or bet and on the "battle ground" you can't really factor in everything we have so there isn't a BAD decision to be made(Except fold). On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?
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#30
12-13-2005, 07:55 PM
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Re: Do we take the free card?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] Just wanted to make sure you know that you are in the hijack this hand. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] The converter says its 6 handed when its 5. Annoying.
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