Pushing over LP limper - how often is this EV+?

[The Student]

Played this hand in a MTT today at the Bike Club in LA. Buy in was $200+30 (freezeout), 400 entries and we're down to 16 tables. Everyone started with a stack of T2000, and the average now is around T5000. I've been at the table (with Barbar Enright) for 2 orbits and have only played one hand - I pushed with 700 and 10/9s from UTG when the blinds were 100/200/25a and I tripled up when I hit my flush over Enright's 3/3 and the SB's mucked hand. There are a few stacks at the table who are short like me (around 1500 - 2000 chips), a couple average stacks, and Enright is the big stack with about 8000 chips.

Here's the hand:
Blinds recently rose to 150/300/50a.

All fold to CO who limps (with about 2500 behind). SB folds and I'm in BB with K/5s and 1400 behind my BB. Villian hasn't played more than a few hands since I sat down, and I know that he's limped and then folded to a pre-flop raise.

If I push here the pot will be 150+300+500(antes)+300+1400 (my push) = 2650. So he'll be getting 1.9:1 on his call - but he'll have to put in half his stack to do it, leaving him with about 4xBB (M = 1.3) if he loses. I am happy to have him fold it because that will almost double me up, but how often does he fold it here? He openlimped here, which really confused me because he had me and the SB outchipped - so how often is he looking for action here?

Is a push here a good move or should I wait for a real hand to push with minimal FE (4xBB, M=1.3)?

ts-

[betgo]

You don't have much FE. It's possible you could get a fold live if villain is weak/tight.

You are kind of pot committed and your hand is not that much worse than villain's range. You really don't want to fold this hand.

I would say either push a stop and go. I would definately push any draw or pair on the flop, but you might want to push any flop.

Interesting Barbara Enright was playing. Some pros in a $200 tournament, but not usually names. She may not be a real high stakes player, but is well known for top finish by a woman in the WSOP ME.

[The Student]

Well, I pushed in this case pre-flop and he called with K/K make me a solid dog. In this particular hand, I don't think the PF push or the stop-and-go would have made a difference (although the S&G would have been a semi-bluff since I flopped a flush draw).

However, after thinking it over a bit I started to wonder about how often a PF push over a LP openlimp will get an opponent to lay down a hand. Obviously in this case, the villian was trapping and I fell right into it, but how often is an opponent trapping like this? I think it is very rare, but perhaps others disagree. How often do you think I can get someone to fold here? Unfortunately I didn't have a read on the villian in this hand or I could have saved some chips (or at least put them in with the flush draw after the flop). My thinking was that although I had very few chips to push with and I would be giving him 2:1 PO, since I had seen him limp/fold to a PFR before, maybe I could get him to lay down his hand again especially since he would have to call off 1/2 his stack.

Why do you say I can't get away from this hand? Is it because of the PO? I know I will be very short in another couple of hands, but I am still wondering if it might have been better to wait for a better hand to push with.

On another note, I didn't see anyone else that I recognized, but Babs was sitting on a very nice stack when I joined the table. I heard she was playing all of the events in this tourney (Ho Ho Hold'em). She seemed to be pretty nice, although pissed like everyone else at the table at how inept our dealer was.

thanks for the feedback,

ts-

I think in general a play like this is very good. However, with your history, it's too likely that he's trapping/will call with anything he limped with. That said, pushing and getting called isn't a huge disaster since you're also getting 1.9:1 here.

Stop and go is an option. I might just check and push any flop that gives me any draw or any pair and check/fold any other flop.