Strange hypothetical question

[jwvdcw]

Suppose you're in the BB on the very first hand of a tourney. You get dealt pocket aces. Every single person goes all in. Do you call here and hope to win it all right away or do you take your guaranteed 2nd place and try to use the small blind time to build your way up to first/

I'd assume that almost everyone would say fold and take guaranteed 2nd....well, what would you do if 8 out of the 9 people went all in/

And if you would still fold that, then what about 7/ And so on and so on....what is the max number of all ins that you would call with pocket aces/

[BradleyT]

This was discussed a while back, maybe 2-3 months ago.

Forum is acting up too much for me to search for it though.

[LetsRock]

It's hard to do, but the correct play is to guarantee second. You probably have the best hand, but with 8 or 9 people all-in, there's a lot of ugly things that can happen.

(This has been discussed before.)

[prairieboy]

In a single table tourny: Fold and guarantee yourself second (maybe 3rd if it's a split pot)

In a multi table tourny: Call

[JDO]

Just off the top of my head I would say it's a no-brainer fold.

But, let me think about it. I'm going to use a $10 buy-in as an example because the numbers are easy. In a no fold'em simulation that ran millions of hands, they found you have a 31% chance of winning this hand. So you are pretty far ahead of the random hand (which would have roughly a 10% chance of winning).
Assuming no ties:
So the call is an EV of (.31*50).9+(.31*30).1=13.95+.93=14.88
A fold is an EV of (.9)(30)+.1(50)=$32 dollars

Yup, easy fold.

[AleoMagus]

Yeah, I once brought this up in the following thread

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;o=&vc=1

What is most interesting about this thread in my opinion is Utah's response 'it's not that simple'.

While I would still fold because I prefer to maximize my profit/tourney, I think that his objection has some merit.

He makes the point that by calling, you will actually maximize your $/hand and in turn, your $/hr

Consider for this example:

You find yourself in the enviable situation of being able to take this bet over and over for an hour. You are able to play 100 hands during this hour

If you fold the aces every time (assuming no ties), you will then be forced to play at least one more hand (probably even more) in order to end the tourney after that.
If you call every time (assuming no ties), then you will either win or lose the tourney on that hand and can immediately go on to the next AA all-in situation

after 100 hands, the guy who is calling will be farther ahead.

Regards,
Brad S

[jwvdcw]

Ok, I realize that everyone will say fold...my real question is how few people would have to be all in for you to call/

[Bozeman]

Expressing EV's in fraction of prize pool:

EV of folding, assuming equal players and no ties:
callers EV
9 .33
8 .27
7 .19
6 <~.15
...
1 .1

EV of calling, assuming equal players and that callers have random hands:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.48+1/8*.2=.19
7 .388*.459+0=.18
6 .436*~.433~.19
...
1 .853*~.185~.16

So if folding will get you to the money, it is the better play. If it gets you to the bubble, it is close. Anything less, you have to call.

For an extension, here are the results if you are twice as good as an average player (a stack in your hands plays like a stack twice as big in an average player's hands). All other players are assumed to be average.

fold:
9 .336
8 .306
7 .263
6 <~.224
5 <~.202
...
1 ~.169

call:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.489+1/8*.2=.195
7 .388*.478=.185
6 ~.436*.444=.193
5 ~.492*.419=.206
...
1 ~.853*.273=.232

Not that different, except this great player should fold if it gets her to bubble+1.

Me, I'd fold with 9,8,7 opps allin, probably not 6.
Also, these #'s optimize $/SnG, not $/hr, but the difference is marginal in all but the 9 allin case.

Craig

[Bozeman]

"Consider for this example:

You find yourself in the enviable situation of being able to take this bet over and over for an hour. You are able to play 100 hands during this hour"

This is an incorrect argument, because in life the opportunity you get in your next SnG will not be this good. Therefore, the opportunity cost of folding is much smaller than this would suggest.

Suppose (worst case) it will take you as long to play out this (headsup as a big underdog) SnG as to play an entire SnG. And you are an awesome player, with 100% RoI. Then in this length of time (same for both cases), you will either make >.33-.11=.22 or .21+.22-.22=.21. In real life, you will not have 100% RoI. So even in the very worst case, you still do better folding. Only if you know you will get AA against 9 allins early in the next one does it apply.

Craig

[JDO]

How did you calculate the probablities of winning with 9, 8, 7... players?