Hypothetical Question #2

[David Sklansky]

Jacks this time. And assume your opponents are non colluding experts. I don't want an exact answer.

As for the kings question all you have to do is calculate how you would do if you announced to the crowd that you will never fold and add a little bit to that. I think that is close to a thousand bucks an hour.

[baronzeus]

i suppose you'd be about breakeven

[steveyz]

I think you will be winning the blinds a lot and many hands that end on the flop. I'd say somewhere between $200 and $300.

This situation is much, much worse than KK, since

1. There are a lot more hands that should call, namely AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, and KQ in any position as well as Ax, Kx, and Qx in the blinds.

2. There is a good possibility of multi-way pots which bode very badly for a "call-down strategy" that you might employ with your JJ.

There was a dropoff from around $1600/hr with AA to around $800 or so /hr with KK. I would think that this dropoff would continue to QQ, where you can now add KK to AA as hands which take 8-9 SB almost every time you face them, AK will at least break even from any position, and you can add Kx to hands which at least break even defending from the blinds. So I would put QQ at around break even if you employ a call-down strategy. Clearly you must do better than that by often folding when an ace or a king is on board.
For JJ, it's much worse as you have AQ and KQ now playing from anywhere, and Qx now playing from the blinds. The math is very complex as you have to first formulate a strategy to use with your JJ. You would have to use a mixed game theory call/fold strategy when it's heads up after the flop and an overcard flops. When it's 3-handed and you're facing action you should often fold. My guess is that you can't win with JJ.

[Masquerade]

Jacks are huge. 10 big bets/hour.

[mike l.]

"I don't want an exact answer."

considerably less than kings but more than tens. around $300 per hour.

and youre going to ask next at what point does it get to break even. and that point is around 99 or 88 depending on how well you play and how tricky/smart your opponents are capable of playing.

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

I’d say the Jacks are –EV, maybe substantially so. You will rarely steal the blinds. Your ability to value bet postflop does not exist.

Case one: You announce you are never folding.

In this case, any two-overcard hands can be profitably played from any position. Any hand with one overcard or a PP can be profitably played from the bb. After one person enters the pot from out of the blinds, the range of hands that late-position players can play increases. The blinds would rarely be stolen, and the bets you win from hands that see the flop and fold do not make up for the bets you lose to the hands you pay off.

Case two: You fold sometimes. Against expert players, your ability to fold may save you money in comparison to case one. Still, their folding equity increases the value of all hands substantially, so more hands can be played, especially from the small blind. This suggests more players per flop, and a nearly impossible situation for JJ (given that opponents are “experts”).

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Is there any purpose to these questions? Will finding the answer to this question help me become a better poker player?

I don't know I am just not seeing the point.

[Noo Yawk]

The way my days been going, I'd probably run into the guy with Kings every hand. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[David Sklansky]

"Is there any purpose to these questions? Will finding the answer to this question help me become a better poker player?

I don't know I am just not seeing the point."

You don't think that the thought processes necessary to arrive at an answer are not at least somewhat related to the thought processes that are needed in regular games?