Fold TPGK to 3 flush turn CR?

[thesharpie]

Villain is 52/0 over 60 something hands with AF on the 3 streets of 0.12/0.54/3.34. I've folded to his river check/raise once after raising PF and betting all the way, haven't seen him bluff yet.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero ???

[Redd]

I'd call it down. Even if he never bluffs, this is quite frequently a weaker ace. If he took notice of your river fold it might even be a lone K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] despite his numbers.

what style do those stats correspond to (i.e. tight/loose, passive/neutral/agressive, etc.)?

unless he's pretty agressive i'd say you're already beat. the pot isn't that big either. probably fold.

[milesdyson]

looks appropriate

[Redd]

You think this is a flush over 75% of the time?

My rule of thumb is not to fold here if the turn is an overcard to the flop and it helped my hand. He could be doing this with a weak ace, like Redd said, or he could be doing it with two pair (e.g. Ace rag), in which case you've got a decent number of outs. I think you can call down.

Do you have a WSD figure?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
You think this is a flush over 75% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
it doesn't have to be a flush. sets, aces up, joo know? next time this happens against him i'm going to think maybe he's trying to punk me

[Vex]

[ QUOTE ]
what style do those stats correspond to (i.e. tight/loose, passive/neutral/agressive, etc.)?

unless he's pretty agressive i'd say you're already beat. the pot isn't that big either. probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree. If I'm the villain I don't bluff here if I put hero on an ace. He's liable to call me down, making the bluff backfire. If I'm strong -- two pair or better -- I checkraise for value here, because nine times out of ten they call and then call again on the river.

For me, as a player, checkraising for value in a situation like that is something I do automatically the majority of the time, and I get paid off so often I feel guilty. The turn is the best time for it -- if I wake up and bet out on the turn, they may get scared. If I checkraise the turn, they already feel committed somehow, and allow themselves to be strung along down to the river. If I bet the turn and try to checkraise the river, they're more than likely going to check behind me.

If hero can lay down his hand there, it's a good fold.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a WSD figure?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fairly low for someone with his other stats, like 33%. Don't see how it helps the decision much, though, especially since this takes awhile to converge.