AA

[gaming_mouse]

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Unfortunately, we can't check-fold this river unless we're positive she doesn't bet AA.

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Yeah, I realized that after.

[shemp]

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I will go out on a limb and say that he played the river perfectly and I'm happy to be proven wrong.

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How can anyone disagree provided the constraint his opponent will call but never bet with worse hands and only raise better hands and holds either AQ, AA, or KK?

Change one thing, say, she needs her AQ sooted to give this action early, and there is only 1 hand he beats on the river (AcQc) and should check. Or, give her the free will to put him on AQ and trust her own read with AK, or give her KQ and the same conviction -- I mean, he doesn't have AA, right? Don't get me wrong, I think she rivered the best hand, but if she would occasionally bet AK or AA when checked to or could have KQ and would do the same, it all makes the river a check.

I've learned to tread a bit lightly around how well I understand my opponents. I've read them perfectly, when they've misread their hands. And other times, they've done things I thought so out of character, that I don't know to this day what got into them.

And if it is the case that her likely holdings are AA or KK, hero needs to check the river.

It would be very un-2+2-like, but I couldn't cap the flop and I check and call the turn and river because I see her as only having one of the following: AA, KK, QQ, TT. I'd say KK and QQ are equally likely and TT is maybe half as likely. AA (obviously, is the most unlikely of all).

But, if I took your line, her flat call on the turn scares the Bejeezus out of me. She wants you to flush or do something stupid (like bet on the river with AA).
I'm pretty sure she has you beat from the flop and it just got better on the turn. And then, your only hope (that she has KK) evaporates on the river. Check/Fold or check/call if you really think she might have the other AA. I'm pretty sure you'll be looking at Queens full.

[jackmayhoffer]

Since when can you 5 bet at the Borgata in a betting round that is not heads up?

[Mackie]

She has position on you, why couldn't she 4 bet the flop with AsKx? I see no point in betting the river. None. Looks like a clear CC.

I never play higher than 30-60. Is there some reason for the river bet other than she may lay down a better hand or call with a worse one?

[Turning Stone Pro]

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Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is.

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You don't have aces, sir, you have two pair, using a pocket overpair, with a K kicker. Terrible river play.

TSP

[flawless_victory]

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She has position on you, why couldn't she 4 bet the flop with AsKx? I see no point in betting the river. None. Looks like a clear CC.

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hmm, so u think AK is plenty likely, but you see no reason to bet the river?
how about value?

[ActionBob]

Its head up when the 4th bet went in, so there is no cap.

-ActionBob

I dont like the river bet. Her hand range is pretty small given the description you gave, and I think that queens full raises the turn, as well as tens full. I dont think she's holding either one of these hands when she just calls the turn, because, you advertised that you would raise, raise, raise on the flop, so, with a full house I think she gets into a rasing war on the turn, too. Then I'm left thinking she doesnt have QQ or 10-10, so she must have AA or KK. AA less likely, but still possible. I'm checking a K on this river because given the action I see KK as her most likely hand. I'm still calling a river bet because I dont like putting that much action in PF and on the flop and folding to one bet on the river. I might be right that she has K's full, but she's going to have to show me at this point. Check/call, and knuckle the table when she shows you AA, and thank Mr. Variance when she flips up the nuts. The only other hand I even considered was AsJs, but I cant see a passive player playing a gutshot royal that fast. But then again some players get absolutely giddy about a royal flush draw. I'd say KK 80% QQ 10% 10-10 8% and quads/royal 2% in this situation.






Tex

[Mackie]

hmm, you value bet the river because she *might* have a hand you can beat, but *probably* not? Show me where I said "plenty" likely.

The possibility she could have AK (or even less likely KQ) justifies a check-call instead of a check-fold. Betting the river is spewing. If she does have AK you probably still get the same one big bet from her with a check call.