River decision with overpair.

[elindauer]

So, everybody seems to want to call this river, and some want to actually raise the turn, with everybody justifying it on the basis that he is on a straight draw. My own feeling is that players capping non-flush draws out of position are rare, but perhaps I'm off here. Do you guys really see feel that a cap on this board from the SB, followed by a turn and river bet, is a straight draw more than 10% of the time?

Thanks,
Eric

[1800GAMBLER]

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You make some interesting points, but I think you are overstating the odds that he a) is aggressive enough to cap a draw out of position which does not include a flush draw, and b) is not aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn enough that raising is wrong. That's a fine line.

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Addressing each at a time.

a: Most importantly, you dismissed that i said top pair good kicker, that is more likely than the draw. 2ndly the draw cap is more common than you think.

b: no one, ever, ever, is 3 betting the turn with a hand you beat. You are talking about a 10% range of hands of To,As and a 10% range of players aggressive enough to do it. You have a VERY safe laid down to the turn 3 bet.

Not raising the turn is a mistake. I'd be surprised if you considered raising the turn in the hand.

[flawless_victory]

hi. this laydown is horrible. eff the staight draw theory... this is a bad theory. the reason you call is the possibility of an underpair. AN UNDERPAIR. DO YOU HEAR ME? even JJ is quite possible.

[roy_miami]

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You have a VERY safe laid down to the turn 3 bet.


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The problem with raising the turn and folding to a 3-bet is he now has odds to try to hit his 4-outer on the river.

[lil feller]

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So, everybody seems to want to call this river, and some want to actually raise the turn, with everybody justifying it on the basis that he is on a straight draw. My own feeling is that players capping non-flush draws out of position are rare, but perhaps I'm off here. Do you guys really see feel that a cap on this board from the SB, followed by a turn and river bet, is a straight draw more than 10% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why then, did you call the turn? If you were convinced that he was capping for value with a 14+ out flush draw, and the draw gets there, you're getting 9.5:1 to call. Not enough to draw at 4 outs (probably safe to say 3, since he might have A8s, and be correctly putting you on a big pair). Assuming that's true, and you stick to your read, you're calling the turn because you think, somewhere deep inside, that you still have the best hand, right? If thats the case, raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet.

From a theoritical standpoint your turn call, given your flop read, can only be correct if you think villian is on a complete naked bluff (which given your holding, could be anything including a smaller pair that you think he will fold to a raise), and you're going to let him keep bluffing. By just calling the turn you're committed to calling an river as well.

I understand that after TP pairs on the river, and villian still bets, there are few hands (if any) you can beat, but calling here is the only thing that can make your turn call even close to ok. The one bet may win you a pot, but its certain to buy you peace of mind and specific aggression information about one of your opponents.

Just the thoughts of a guy who's currently running really bad...take them as you please.

lf

[elindauer]

Hi lil feller,

I called the turn hoping that he was overplaying TPTK due to my somewhat laggy image. I didn't think it likely that he had just an underpair, as that would leave many more hands I could hold that he can't beat (any ten).

So I called the turn feeling that I was probably behind, but that it was close enough due to my table image. Once the board paired again, that took out a big chunk of the hands I put him on. I looked at the pot odds and decided it wasn't there.

That's just the logic I used during the play of the hand, I don't claim to know that it's correct. My current feeling is that the river is probably close and it doesn't make much difference, but I'm not sold either way.

I see that I MAY be good, but am I good often enough? I'm not so sure. Maybe. I can beat more than just a bluff on the turn, but not on the river.

-Eric

[elindauer]

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... the draw cap is more common than you think ... no one, ever, ever, is 3 betting the turn with a hand you beat.

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So your claim is that players COMMONLY cap non flush draws and TPTK out of position on this board, but NEVER, EVER 3-bet the turn with those hands. Is that about right?

I don't see why you feel the need to exaggerate your statements so ridiculously. Obviously, there is a correlation between a player capping a weak hand on the flop and a player 3-betting a hand weaker than mine on the turn. How can you say with a straight face that this will never happen?

Exaggerating your claims may make you feel better about your position, but it doesn't make you more right.

-Eric

[HighStakesPro]

If they see that you call them down with legitimate hands on the river, then if you fold on the river in the future they will probably put you on a missed draw or a hand that just got counterfeited. The bottom line is some people will bet on the river no matter what card comes up if they bet and were called on the turn, and some people will even bet out of position on the river when you've been taking the lead throughout the hand, if a scare card comes on the river, and they will do it no matter what their hand is, so you have to call down on the river. The main problem with raising the turn is that most of the hands that beat you (flush, straight, possibly even trips with a straight or flush draw) will three-bet and you'll lose extra money if you call, and even somebody who's on a draw will three-bet sometimes. Generally you don't want to raise unless you are confident with capping if you get three-bet. If you're going to fold to a three-bet on the turn, you might as well just call down instead, it costs the same amount of money and you have a decent chance of having the best hand at showdown.

[Your Mom]

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I'd be surprised if you considered raising the turn in the hand.

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What's the point of this comment?

[elindauer]

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I'd be surprised if you considered raising the turn in the hand.

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What's the point of this comment?

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I think he means, I'd be surprised if you didn't consider raising the turn.