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#21
11-30-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place. 
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#22
11-30-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] If we are ahead we want him betting the river not folding to our turn 3-bet.
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#23
11-30-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] If we are ahead we want him betting the river not folding to our turn 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] If he has T2, yeah. Not if he has AK, AQ, KQ, or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s.
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#24
11-30-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] We bet in the first place b/c we think we have the best hand. Now we get c/r. Let's say, for example his c/r means 66% of the time he has trips, and 33% of the time a hand we beat. We have to call down, but a 3 bet is bad b/c have the best hand <%50 of the time.
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#26
11-30-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
I don't really see why this is really that close. The turn is really really obvious. We're betting for value, because we have the best hand a good amount of the time, and we are betting because we cannot afford to give a free card. How can anyone suggest checking this when villain could hold any overcard?
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#27
11-30-2005, 05:07 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sorry, but I just can't put him on a 9 here. Villian is at 14.3% VP$P, and that's through almost 600 hands, so we can safely assume he plays tight preflop. He called a raise from the SB, knowing he'd be OOP the rest of the hand against a pre-flop raiser. His PFR% is high enough that I'd expect to see a re-raise if he had AA/KK/QQ (but not much else). The only hands I can see him doing that with that beat us are 99 and maybe, possibly, A9s if he's feeling really lucky. If he's got 99 and flopped quads, we pay him off, tell him "nice hand" and move on. But, I think we're still ahead enough times to justify a 3-bet here, and if he caps, just check/call the river.
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#28
11-30-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Interesting responses. I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks... Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??? [/ QUOTE ] 3-bet the turn. check/call the river. if capped- fold. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with Noob on this one. Calling this down sucks IMO because he's going to bet the river 100% of the time and it doesn't cost us any less when we're behind assuming we fold to a cap. If you're not going to fold this you should 3-bet for the same reason you bet in the first place. [/ QUOTE ] this is bad logic. there is X% chance we are ahead but we're unsure what that X is. but it's not super small. if we pay the same amount either way, shouldn't we go to showdown and have a chance to win the pot?
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#29
11-30-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
Addtionally, by folding to a cap, we forfeit what might be 4 outs.
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#30
11-30-2005, 05:18 PM
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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
the only reason to 3-bet is:
1. he c/r on a semi-bluff [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and check/fold the river UI. 2. call our 3-bet with 88/77 and pay off UI on the river. otherwise i just call down.
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