Facing a turn raise with middle pair heads up vs a preflop raiser

[cartman]

CO is 25/15 with attempt to steal blinds of 32. He is aggressive heads up postflop.

PREFLOP:
CO open-raises and only Hero calls in the BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

FLOP:(4.5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises.

TURN: (4.25 BB)6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero?


If you call the turn raise, what if any river cards cause you to fold to a river bet?

How would your answer change if the turn card would have been 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] instead of 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Thanks,
Cartman

[cartman]

Does anyone not typically checkraise this flop?

Thanks,
Cartman

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone not typically checkraise this flop?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

313,830 games 0.109 secs 2,879,174 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.8791 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J8s, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 59.1209 % [ 00.59 00.00 ] { 9s8s }

Don't know how close this hand range is.

I'm wondering if chk-calling sucks or not.

Pflop pot = 4.5 SB = 2.25 BB
Assume he bets every street postflop when ahead.
Final pot 7.25 B

Times he's ahead/wins:
7.25 x 40% = 2.9

To find out how much he needs to put in when behind:
Pot x 60% >= 2.9, Pot needs to be 4.83BB.

Postflop: 4.83 - 2.25 = 2.33BB
Of which you are contributing half, so 1.17 BB.
If he autobets the flop, 1.17 - .5 = .67.
So he needs to bet the turn or river when behind 67% of the time.

Assuming I did this right, as long as he will lead the turn, or bet the river when the turn gets checked through >60% chk-calling down is +EV.

[partygirluk]

Number of options. Calling turn and folding river UI is one of them, but I would call the river is he has seen me folding rivers after calling a turn raise.

[csuf_gambler]

anyone check/call the turn?

When you guys figure out the best way to play these let me know.

[sweetjazz]

I've been moving toward folding these in situations where I don't have a history with the villain. He could be making a free showdown play with 77 or A4 or even AK. He could be semibluffing with JT or on an outright bluff. But I think a lot of solid players don't get out of line that often (since it's rarely particularly profitable to do so against an unknown) and many of them are too weak to raise with weak made hands. So I think you're against a better hand too often to call down profitably (though it's close, as you almost have good enough odds to peel one more).

To avoid being exploitable you should be calling these down some of the time. If you have extra outs -- say a gutshot -- that gives you good enough odds to call the turn and it's probably worth calling down for one more bet (since you have to do it some of the time anyway).

Also, at lower mid-limit games (say 5/10 and 10/20), I see relatively little semibluff turn raising by solid players in HU pots and I see many otherwise solid players making pretty bad calldowns HU (even given the liberal standards one should be using to show down hands). It seems that good players have realized that they have to show down a winner so often that they will value bet their made hands to death and try to get to get to showdown cheaply with weak made hands and try to draw cheaply with drawing hands. That seems, to me, to be the general state of the game at this point. (I should say that I have played a fair amount of full ring lately as well as 6 max, and that may be clouding my judgment of the 6 max games a bit.)

Hmm, so I guess it all depends. But as a default play, I'd consider folding. (Also, since I intend to show down more liberally after folding hands like these, I am okay if my image is weak-tight and that players try to take shots at me, because I plan on adjusting a bit to take advantage of that.) Against some with a history, I need to consider what hands he 3-bets the flop with (the fact that he didn't 3-bet this flop may say something significant with) and I'll have a better idea of how often he likes to take stabs at pots with weak hands or nothing at all. It doesn't take too much restealing on the turn on his part to make calling down correct.

[sweetjazz]

I have noticed that most people call down in these situations, so I am almost always have the goods when I raise the turn in this spot if I am villain. But if I see someone fold here, that's an obvious note to make, and I no longer need to have a hand anymore.

So while playing this hand from the blinds is tricky, I don't think it is too tricky for the CO. I think BB is going to showdown his hand period (unless he's on a draw). This seems like a really bad spot to semibluff raise, and so a raise here by CO should almost always be for value.

I generally need a read on BB before I think he's capable of releasing his hand here.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been moving toward folding these in situations where I don't have a history with the villain. He could be making a free showdown play with 77 or A4 or even AK. He could be semibluffing with JT or on an outright bluff. But I think a lot of solid players don't get out of line that often (since it's rarely particularly profitable to do so against an unknown) and many of them are too weak to raise with weak made hands. So I think you're against a better hand too often to call down profitably (though it's close, as you almost have good enough odds to peel one more).

To avoid being exploitable you should be calling these down some of the time. If you have extra outs -- say a gutshot -- that gives you good enough odds to call the turn and it's probably worth calling down for one more bet (since you have to do it some of the time anyway).

Also, at lower mid-limit games (say 5/10 and 10/20), I see relatively little semibluff turn raising by solid players in HU pots and I see many otherwise solid players making pretty bad calldowns HU (even given the liberal standards one should be using to show down hands). It seems that good players have realized that they have to show down a winner so often that they will value bet their made hands to death and try to get to get to showdown cheaply with weak made hands and try to draw cheaply with drawing hands. That seems, to me, to be the general state of the game at this point. (I should say that I have played a fair amount of full ring lately as well as 6 max, and that may be clouding my judgment of the 6 max games a bit.)

Hmm, so I guess it all depends. But as a default play, I'd consider folding. (Also, since I intend to show down more liberally after folding hands like these, I am okay if my image is weak-tight and that players try to take shots at me, because I plan on adjusting a bit to take advantage of that.) Against some with a history, I need to consider what hands he 3-bets the flop with (the fact that he didn't 3-bet this flop may say something significant with) and I'll have a better idea of how often he likes to take stabs at pots with weak hands or nothing at all. It doesn't take too much restealing on the turn on his part to make calling down correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow this is a great post.

[ArturiusX]

I fold this. Small pot, and I don't think hes semi bluffing with draws on this board.

Flop check raise is standard.