Q9s 10xBB 6th position push

[betgo]

$20 Party MTT. Blinds 100/200, no ante. I have Q9s and T2000 one before CO and push. Good play?

[Lloyd]

I think this is a marginal push in this situation. You could possibly just make a standard raise since at 10XBB you're on the edge of "push if you enter the pot". Big factors to consider are your image, the image of the blinds, and the stack sizes of the blinds.

[Rushmore]

I assume you mean "open-push," right?

If so, I still think it's close, and obviously depends on image and especially on the depth of the blinds' stacks and where you are in the tourney.

[Rednax]

I thought "the theory" was to only push quality hands once you got down to 10x and save the Q9s hands until you were down to 5x or less.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought "the theory" was to only push quality hands once you got down to 10x and save the Q9s hands until you were down to 5x or less.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. Of course, these are definitely generalities and shouldn't be taken as a hard and fast rule. And Q9s isn't horrible against 3 random hands. It actually has 32% pot equity meaning it's a slight favorite against 3 random hands.

[betgo]

Actually, I was playing it against 4 random hands. From early position, you need to be very tight and there are very few hands you want to play at all with 10xBB UTG. From the button or SB, you can push with a lot of hands with 10xBB. Q9s is not likely to be dominated and has flush and some straight possiblities, so it is not a bad hand to push with.

I got called by the BB with AJs (not my suits) and lost to ace high. I figured it was EV -300 against AJs. Of course, if I pick up the blinds I gain 300.

I agree this is a borderline push and thought so when I made it. The table was fairly loose and I had a tight image.

[Lloyd]

Oh sorry, I remembered CO. Against 4 random hands you have 26% pot equity which still isn't too bad.

[AlwaysWrong]

I don't see how this is relevant. His opponents won't call with random hands - they will call with good hands.

The factors you need to consider are:

(1) The range of hands you expect to be called by.
(2) Your odds of beating THOSE hands.
(3) The probability one or more of your opponents have those hands.

[Lloyd]

How strong your hand is against random hands gives you some indication of it's general strength. It's one factor to consider. For example, 72o has only 11% pot equity against 4 random hands and AA has 56% pot equity.

[Lloyd]

I do agree with you completely though that the most accurate way of deciding what to do would be to figure out the range of hands your opponents would call with, the chance that 1 or more will have a hand within that range, and your chances of winning if called. That's just a very difficult exercise to go through if you want a precise calculation. Your strength versus random hands gives an imprecise answer to two of those questions.