TP against flop aggression

[hemstock]

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You have to call down. You have outs against 2-pair and you are ahead of any draws. Not 3-betting the flop would be a mistake IMO. Make the other player fold, and force the other one to pay for his draw.

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His check-raise could means lots of things. His cap reduces the likelyhood of a draw a lot, and Qx quite a bit as well. When he leads on the turn he's even less likely to have a weak hand. On the other hand, since I only call the turn he will follow up on the river the majority of times.

So calling down here is the "ABC" play without more specific knowledge about the opponent than the stats?

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It's not "ABC" but what other options do you have? Are you gonna fold TP great kicker in this big pot. Never. Are you gonna raise? It seems like spewing of chips right here. The only other way I can thing of playing this is raising the turn and folding to a 3-bet, but that would be really bad if you have outs against 2 pair.

[winky51]

If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.

The problem with calling the flop and raising the turn is what he thinks you have.

for the set: 99, 77, QQ
for the TP with draw: AdQ, AdA

If my read is right you have 5 ways for the set and 9 ways to have AdQ or AdA. If I was him id reraise with Q9 if you just called the flop. If you have like AdKd would,nt you cap the flop?

Now because you capped the flop can you raise the turn? I think you can if you intend to call down. You can only hit a K in this case because I think he has Q9. But I dont think he can reraise you on the turn, you capped that flop and with the diamond it adds more hands to the mix that can beat him. AdKd, Adjd, QQ, 99, 77, KdJd and so on.

check unimproved on the river or bet if you hit a K.

[Saborion]

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If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.


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34 % VPIP = 97s any day and twice on sundays. Not sure about Q7s.

[Sand]

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If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.

The problem with calling the flop and raising the turn is what he thinks you have.

for the set: 99, 77, QQ
for the TP with draw: AdQ, AdA

If my read is right you have 5 ways for the set and 9 ways to have AdQ or AdA. If I was him id reraise with Q9 if you just called the flop. If you have like AdKd would,nt you cap the flop?

Now because you capped the flop can you raise the turn? I think you can if you intend to call down. You can only hit a K in this case because I think he has Q9. But I dont think he can reraise you on the turn, you capped that flop and with the diamond it adds more hands to the mix that can beat him. AdKd, Adjd, QQ, 99, 77, KdJd and so on.

check unimproved on the river or bet if you hit a K.

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Interesting hand. With a 22% PFR, I don't think he has a set, nor do I think he would CR it on the flop. I think we can rule out AQ, KJs, or any broadway PP. I put him on something like Td9d, Td8d, Q9 or Q9s, 97s, JTo, J8s in about that order. JdTd is a possibility (though I raise that in MP and I run slightly under his PFR) and I'd would play the flop like that with that holding. The flop CR and resulting cap lends me to think he has a big draw.

Smart money would fold the river. I don't see much in the way of possible holdings you beat after that turn, even at 10:1 odds. Given that I'd probably call down. JTo is the only thing you may be ahead of, and I doubt he caps the flop with it (though I've certainly seen it before).

[Saborion]

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If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.

The problem with calling the flop and raising the turn is what he thinks you have.

for the set: 99, 77, QQ
for the TP with draw: AdQ, AdA

If my read is right you have 5 ways for the set and 9 ways to have AdQ or AdA. If I was him id reraise with Q9 if you just called the flop. If you have like AdKd would,nt you cap the flop?

Now because you capped the flop can you raise the turn? I think you can if you intend to call down. You can only hit a K in this case because I think he has Q9. But I dont think he can reraise you on the turn, you capped that flop and with the diamond it adds more hands to the mix that can beat him. AdKd, Adjd, QQ, 99, 77, KdJd and so on.

check unimproved on the river or bet if you hit a K.

[/ QUOTE ] The flop CR and resulting cap lends me to think he has a big draw.

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So you think he has a big draw here more often than a made hand when he caps out of position?

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If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.

The problem with calling the flop and raising the turn is what he thinks you have.

for the set: 99, 77, QQ
for the TP with draw: AdQ, AdA

If my read is right you have 5 ways for the set and 9 ways to have AdQ or AdA. If I was him id reraise with Q9 if you just called the flop. If you have like AdKd would,nt you cap the flop?

Now because you capped the flop can you raise the turn? I think you can if you intend to call down. You can only hit a K in this case because I think he has Q9. But I dont think he can reraise you on the turn, you capped that flop and with the diamond it adds more hands to the mix that can beat him. AdKd, Adjd, QQ, 99, 77, KdJd and so on.

check unimproved on the river or bet if you hit a K.

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Interesting hand. With a 22% PFR, I don't think he has a set, nor do I think he would CR it on the flop. I think we can rule out AQ, KJs, or any broadway PP. I put him on something like Td9d, Td8d, Q9 or Q9s, 97s, JTo, J8s in about that order. JdTd is a possibility (though I raise that in MP and I run slightly under his PFR) and I'd would play the flop like that with that holding. The flop CR and resulting cap lends me to think he has a big draw.

Smart money would fold the river. I don't see much in the way of possible holdings you beat after that turn, even at 10:1 odds. Given that I'd probably call down. JTo is the only thing you may be ahead of, and I doubt he caps the flop with it (though I've certainly seen it before).

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Folding this river is bad, bad bad. You have top pair with a great kicker. Are you really more than 92 % sure you're beat (this % may be off, just adding it up in my head on the fly.)

I like a call down. I don't like raising the turn for a free showdown, by the way. While I'm often a fanboy for this play, it seems to be a bad move when you're drawing at something less than an OESD or flush draw ... we don't know if we'll be good even if we improve to two pair or trips. Also, if our draw is live, it would suck to be 3-bet on the turn and fold when we're really getting odds for a calldown.

[danzasmack]

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i would just call the flop raise and then call down.

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If i just called the flop I think i'd always raise a safe turn card. I think just calling a c/r when you have TP2ndK and calling down misses a lot of value.

[Sand]

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If I had to guess I would say Q9 here.

QQ, 99, 77 hed raise PF. 34% VPIP I dont see Q7s or 97s.

The problem with calling the flop and raising the turn is what he thinks you have.

for the set: 99, 77, QQ
for the TP with draw: AdQ, AdA

If my read is right you have 5 ways for the set and 9 ways to have AdQ or AdA. If I was him id reraise with Q9 if you just called the flop. If you have like AdKd would,nt you cap the flop?

Now because you capped the flop can you raise the turn? I think you can if you intend to call down. You can only hit a K in this case because I think he has Q9. But I dont think he can reraise you on the turn, you capped that flop and with the diamond it adds more hands to the mix that can beat him. AdKd, Adjd, QQ, 99, 77, KdJd and so on.

check unimproved on the river or bet if you hit a K.

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Interesting hand. With a 22% PFR, I don't think he has a set, nor do I think he would CR it on the flop. I think we can rule out AQ, KJs, or any broadway PP. I put him on something like Td9d, Td8d, Q9 or Q9s, 97s, JTo, J8s in about that order. JdTd is a possibility (though I raise that in MP and I run slightly under his PFR) and I'd would play the flop like that with that holding. The flop CR and resulting cap lends me to think he has a big draw.

Smart money would fold the river. I don't see much in the way of possible holdings you beat after that turn, even at 10:1 odds. Given that I'd probably call down. JTo is the only thing you may be ahead of, and I doubt he caps the flop with it (though I've certainly seen it before).

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Folding this river is bad, bad bad. You have top pair with a great kicker. Are you really more than 92 % sure you're beat (this % may be off, just adding it up in my head on the fly.)

I like a call down. I don't like raising the turn for a free showdown, by the way. While I'm often a fanboy for this play, it seems to be a bad move when you're drawing at something less than an OESD or flush draw ... we don't know if we'll be good even if we improve to two pair or trips. Also, if our draw is live, it would suck to be 3-bet on the turn and fold when we're really getting odds for a calldown.

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I can't think of a hand that he won't PFR, then CR and cap the flop that you beat after the turn. He either flopped 2 pair and is protecting from the diamond draw or has a big draw, which more than likely got there on the turn. Only two hands I think he calls with in MP and that you are beating after the flop action are T8o and JTo, with JTo being most likely. Given the possibilities of all the other hands I don't think you are good 10% of the time here.

Like I said, given that I still probably call this, though it is likely a small leak.

I'd love to see what he did have.

[Saborion]

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I can't think of a hand that he won't PFR, then CR and cap the flop that you beat after the turn. He either flopped 2 pair and is protecting from the diamond draw or has a big draw, which more than likely got there on the turn. Only two hands I think he calls with in MP and that you are beating after the flop action are T8o and JTo, with JTo being most likely. Given the possibilities of all the other hands I don't think you are good 10% of the time here.

Like I said, given that I still probably call this, though it is likely a small leak.

I'd love to see what he did have.

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If you pokerstove it you have the odds to call down if you add JTo to the mix, even more so if you add T8o as well. I suck at putting people on hand ranges, but I agree with everything you say except that JTo and T8o is so trigger happy that they cap the flop, lead the turn and the river.

If we give him a range of Q9s, T9dd, T8dd, 97s, Q9o after the flop we have 8.5 % to improve to the best hand on the river. Not enough to call profitably. Add ONE combination of JTo and our percentage jumps to 14.5 %, changing things a bit.

[milesdyson]

yeah i'm gonna have to say that the river call is -EV, but who has the stones to lay it down? i honestly get sick pleasure out of making folds like this.