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  #1  
Old 11-27-2005, 10:47 PM
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Default Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

What are the odds of this happening?

I was the guy who had the AQ, and I also had AK Vs. AA and an A
flopped. Happened to me in ring game play just today Online - I lost a nice chunk of money each time. Is this a rare happening?

It seems like it's a recipe for losing money if you are the one with the AQ or the AK...Is there a way to get away from these hands when this happens?
It seems to me like it's time to check-raise the flop and then at least call down with these holdings...

I would like to know how often this happens (to know if I should be paying attention to this while playing or if it's such a rare happening that I should not worry about it at all...).
It's tough to let go of an AK when you flop that A...

Thanks,
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2005, 06:25 AM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Location: New Jersey - near A.C.
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Default Re: Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

If you have AQ and another player at the table has QQ the odds against seeing the case Queen will flop are 15-1 against; put another way, the Queen will flop 6.25% of the time.

QQ will flop a set approximately 12% of the time when both Queens are in the deck so it seems reasonable that with only one Q the set will show up roughly half as often.

Notes:

1. Despite the fact that it worked out in this instance this method is NOT the correct one for doing calculations of this sort (although in most cases it comes fairly close); the reason should be obvious. If there were 16 Queens left in the deck the chances of flopping one when you held AQ and your opponent held QQ would obviously not be 100%.

2. You asked what the chance(s) were of flopping the Queen IF ONE OF YOUR OPONENTS HELD QQ WHILE YOU HELD AQ. You did not the question that would be more appropriate (to me anyway), "If I hold AQ and a Q flops what are the odds against my opponent having QQ" ?

Do you see why knowing this figure is more useful than the one you asked ?

*

*

If I were invited to attend an event and knew that "Joe" had also been invited and I did not wish to see "Joe", knowing the odds of him attending are of little use once I run into him !

However, if on the way in I am told that there are is male in the room whose first name begins with "J" out of 20 people with this initial who were invited it's not difficult to determine that the chances of that person being "Joe" are 1 in 20.

If I am then informed that the person in question has red hair and I know that only 14 of the 20 "J's" have red hair I can then lower the likely odds to 1 in 14 (although some allowance must be made for the possibility that Joe has dyed his hair since I last saw him).

*

Do you see the idea ?

If your opponent raised before the flop and you know from past sessions with him (or you make the very plausible assumption if you've never played with him before) that he will raise in this exact situation (same position, same number of callers, etc.) with

AA, KK, QQ, AKs and AK/off

you can proceed knowing that if a Queen does flop there is only one chance in 22 that he has QQ. (I am assuming for purposes of simplification that there are no Aces or Kings on the flop).

He can have QQ 1 way, AA 3 ways, KK 6 ways AKs 3 ways and AK/off 9 ways.

- You want to be able to do these calculations in your head rapidly and accurately, because if you can you'll be one of about a dozen people in the world who can. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

- Seriously though, if you can at least guestimate the individual chances for each of the possiblities you can make more informed choices regarding how and whether to continue with your hand. But do not forget to adjust for what you see as the hand progresses. If the flop comes Q-7-2 rainbow and a tight player continues to contest the pot you can pretty much rule out JJ or AK/off and AK/s becomes a little less likely. A tight player will usually not push AKs without flopping som e sort of draw.

I hope that helped.

*

BTW, I stand by the math and the info it provides you but you're on your own regarding how you use it. Don't get too attached to your initial assesment of his possible holdings. This particular [tight] opponent may have chosen to add 77 to his raising hands causing you to incorrectly measure not only his chances of having QQ but more importantly your chances of winning the hand. (Tight player raises 77 = Joe dyed his hair)
*

To those who think this answer was far too f---ing long [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . . .

This is a complex topic for someone who has no backround in probability and I thought it best to illustrate it as clearly as possible.

Or, to put it another way, [censored] me; I did the best I could. (LOL)

*

Best wishes,

- Chris
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:12 PM
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Default Re: Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

thanks for the great reply!

to put it briefly, I only have to worry about my opponent having a set of
Queens when I have AQ (or a set of Aces when I have AK) only 6.25% of the time..., right?

My point is that when you have AK and the board comes: A 9 2 rainbow or when any Ace flops with no real draw out there or a pair on the flop with the Ace, etc., you pretty much HAVE to assume you have the best hand AND I'd even go so far as to say it's mandatory that you show the hand down when Heads Up.

Is this correct???

The only way I can see getting away from this hand is folding to a Turn raise...
And even this seems pretty tight to me...(to fold with Top pair Top kicker with no draw present)
So I'll re-phrase...
the
only way I could see folding a hand this strong (having AQ and flopping a Q x x rainbow (non-connecting and no pair on the board) or doing he same with AK - flopping an A x x board " " "...
is if a
very TIGHT-wad rock raises you on the turn...

You also mentioned 1 in 22...this is 4.54% correct?
So, the answer is "it" happens
between 4.54 and 6.25% of the time, which to me is not often enough to merit worrying about.

Anyone else have any thoughts? Should I just chalk it up to bad luck when I take these hits, or is
there a way to limit my losses when my opponent flops a big set/a set?
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2005, 05:13 PM
KJL KJL is offline
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Posts: 135
Default Re: Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

[ QUOTE ]

to put it briefly, I only have to worry about my opponent having a set of
Queens when I have AQ (or a set of Aces when I have AK) only 6.25% of the time..., right?


[/ QUOTE ]
No 6.25% is the probability that the flop contains a Queens assuming you hold AQ and your opponent holds QQ. The chance that he holds QQ when the flop is Qxy and you hold AQ is .08%.
However, as ohnotthat was saying this is not useful you have to take into account his range of hands. This is were he got the 1/22 number from. He compared the probability of QQ with the other hands in your opponents range. So this dosent happen between 4.5% and 6.25% they are completely different numbers. I think this is what ohnothtat was saying, but I only skimmed his post.

To answer your other question, it is possible to get away from these hands. Top pair top kicker is not that good of a hand and to be a succesful poker player, you have to be able to get away from it. You should post the hands that you have trouble with in some of the other forumns to help you with this.
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2005, 07:34 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

I basically agree that you figure to lose money with top pair, top kicker on those rare instances that someone holds a pair that matches your top pair. You can't win at poker worrying about everything the other guy might have.

However, there are worries when you hold top pair top kicker: higher pair, lower set, straight and flush. You're unlikely to have a hand that you're confident will win, and the other guy might well have a hand that he's confident will win. So while this is a strong flop, it's also one to be careful with (the other ones to be careful with are all the other flops).
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2005, 10:54 PM
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Default Re: Having AQ Vs. QQ and having a Q flop

[ QUOTE ]
Top pair top kicker is not that good of a hand and to be a succesful poker player, you have to be able to get away from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great advice - thank you.

All my questions have been answered:
You have to be able to get away from TPTK (and even an overpair sometimes),
but not just for the reason of your opponent flopping a set against the top flop card that
you just paired...that doesn't happen often enough to merit worrying about, would you say/agree?
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