Betting on the NBA Rookie of the Year

[llabb]

Just like for the MVP, I I polled the Sporting Events forum for the Rookie of the Year. Not that many votes in yet, but the clear direction is towards Chris Paul and Bogut.

It seems that Bogut will come off the bench for at least the beginning of the year, so Paul and Deron Williams are the only 2 guaranteed rookie starters.

Rookie of the Year capping is easier than MVP or team records, because the field is quite limited. It is also increasingly easier, because as the draft gets younger and more developmental, there are fewer studs, and of those, only a couple are guaranteed good playing time. Last year, it was a lock to be Okafor or Howard, and indeed, Okafor won. The year before, it was easy money to be LeBron or Carmelo, and indeed, LeBron won.

This year, it appears to be almost assured that it'll be Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or Andrew Bogut, and my money is on one of the 2 guards, due to Bogut's playing time situation, with Gadzuric starting, who the Bucks just shelled out a big contract to.

I feel that taking all 3 of those players nets an extremely soft line, combined for +130, no matter which of them win. Yes, it locks up money for a long time, but this is a hugely +EV situation, and I have the roll for it. Taking the 3 players for even net winnings is the safe way to do it.

I am thinking about going with my predictions, though, and putting 1.5 units on Paul, 1 unit on Deron, and 1 unit on Bogut, which nets a 7.75 unit win on Paul, a 4 unit win on Deron, and a 2.5 unit win on Bogut.

The weightings can be played with as you like, but the general gist is to play those 3. Other thoughts, critiques, and commentary welcome. Full ROY odds from Intertops follow below:


Marvin Williams +450
Andrew Bogut +500
Chris Paul +650
Deron Williams +650
Danny Granger +1000
Fran Vazquez +1000
Antoine Wright +1200
Charlie Villanueva +1200
Gerald Green +1200
Hakim Warrick +1200
Rashard McCants +1200
Raymond Felton +1200
Sean May +1200
Martell Webster +1500
Channing Frye +1700
Wayne Simien +2000

villaneuva has looked fantastic for toronto, and mitchell is playing him huge minutes already .... mitchell has a quick hook with loren woods and araujo and eventually went to a very short rotation last year with donyell getting heavy minutes at 5/4 with bosh. i think eventually CV just takes donyell's minutes.

don't know if that's good enough to win, but i think it's pretty good value at 12 to 1

[Clarkmeister]

Centers tend to really develop slowly. I'd drop Bogut from your pool and either add in someone else or just ride Paul and Williams.

I'd add in Felton and ride all the lottery point guards if you're doing a pool. Personally I put $50 on Deron Williams, just a huge fan of his and I think he's gonna get all the PT he wants in Utah.

[ZeroGravitas]

Any prop bets available on "Sean May will be playing in Kyrgyzstan in three years"?

[llabb]

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Centers tend to really develop slowly. I'd drop Bogut from your pool and either add in someone else or just ride Paul and Williams.

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Thx, that's what I was thinking. I had already dropped the wager amount on Bogut, and was primarily going with Paul and Deron, weighted towards Deron. I think now I'll just hedge for breakeven on Bogut, since it's pretty cheap to do so.

I'm getting crazy flashes of hedging for breakeven on Villanueva b/c it's ultra-cheap and like smchant said, he's been exploding in pre-season and should gain a starting job pretty quickly. Is that overreacting, and am I being swayed too much by the usually meaningless pre-season? (I also remember Nocioni breaking out in pre-season last year, and while he had a solid season, definitely nowhere near competing for ROY.)

[llabb]

Chris Paul had an amazing game last night. I'm rapidly becoming even more comfortable with betting on him for ROY.

Most relevant question: Are there even any other guaranteed rookie starters?

I cannot think of a single one. Even Deron and Bogut have developed questions about their starting status. If CP is the only starting rookie, just give the man the trophy already. His stats will blow everyone else's away. I'm thinking about adding to the CP wager.

[ThePenguin]

[ QUOTE ]
Any prop bets available on "Sean May will be playing in Kyrgyzstan in three years"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sean May is a stud, and I'm saying this as a Duke fan