$500 Bellagio AKo

[SossMan]

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I call quickly getting 1.65 expecting to be well ahead nearly half the time

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If your opponent has a pair, you are over a 3-1 underdog on the flop with AK.

I fold to the push. However, I would have just pushed on the flop as a semibluff. There is enough mopney in the pot that I don't think you should be looking to get away from AK, particularly with this flop.

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fixed my post.

[Jason Strasser]

Nate,

You have 16bb to start the hand and raise 3bb preflop and get an extremely favorable flop. As far as I'm concerned a flop of 655 with two diamonds is pretty damn good. You need to commit yourself to this pot. There is no way you can afford to check and fold here, especially against anyone with an aggressive table image.

So, once you see the flop, you need to find the best way to get your money in. In my opinion, I like making a very scary 5-6bb bet into the pot on the flop (betting 1/2 your stack). Your hand is good, but its obviously vulnerable. Checking and then going all in is an OK scenario, but you can not risk a free card either ruining your action from a worse hand, or one that give your opponent a better hand that would've folded the flop.

So let your opponent know he can't make you fold on the flop, and go from there. As the way you played it, my chips would beat him to the pot.

-Jason

[CieloAzor]

At this point, I don't think you can call. I figure him for a pocket pair.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate,

You have 16bb to start the hand and raise 3bb preflop and get an extremely favorable flop. As far as I'm concerned a flop of 655 with two diamonds is pretty damn good. You need to commit yourself to this pot. There is no way you can afford to check and fold here, especially against anyone with an aggressive table image.

So, once you see the flop, you need to find the best way to get your money in. In my opinion, I like making a very scary 5-6bb bet into the pot on the flop (betting 1/2 your stack). Your hand is good, but its obviously vulnerable. Checking and then going all in is an OK scenario, but you can not risk a free card either ruining your action from a worse hand, or one that give your opponent a better hand that would've folded the flop.

So let your opponent know he can't make you fold on the flop, and go from there. As the way you played it, my chips would beat him to the pot.

-Jason

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Dead solid perfect.

[TheJackal]

I'd call and hate it when he turns over 44 or something similar. Of course if he autoraises when you check, you are ahead most of the time to make the call good. I do think not betting the flop was a mistake.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1046252
pokenum -h 4s 4d - ah kd -- 5c 5h 6s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 6s 5c 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s 4d 611 61.72 370 37.37 9 0.91 0.622
Kd Ah 370 37.37 611 61.72 9 0.91 0.378

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getting 1.65 on his money, he's exaclty neutral EV vs a pair. therefore, he's freerolling for all the times he's up against a non-pair. Think of the amount of times that his opponent has 3 outs.

[Che]

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If your opponent has a pair, you are over a 3-1 underdog on the flop with AK.

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Well, not quite...

Board: 6d 5d 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 27.5971 % [ 00.27 00.00 ] { AhKd }
Hand 2: 72.4029 % [ 00.72 00.00 ] { AA-22 }

I think you forgot to factor in the back door flush draw.

Later,
Che (who is in a nitpicking mood, it seems [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img])

[scooby]

He has 3 extra outs on hands 22-44 due to counterfeiting with the three sixes left in the deck. He's 75:25 dog to a pair above sixes, which is obviously -EV calling, but he's neutral on a pair below fives, drawing almost dead to a boat, and ahead of just about everything else. Do a bayesian probability analysis...Given the tourney situation and what you did, I think you have to call if you want a chance to do well in the tourney and gamble a bit. But I like Jason's suggestion on the flop.

[Luke]

Great post Jason.

One question, why would you bet only 1000-1200 on the flop when you'll be leaving yourself with 1400-1600 (forcing you to call an all-in)?

What's your reasoning (or anyone else's who likes this line) for not pushing it in right away on the flop?

Thanks,

Luke

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate,

You have 16bb to start the hand and raise 3bb preflop and get an extremely favorable flop. As far as I'm concerned a flop of 655 with two diamonds is pretty damn good. You need to commit yourself to this pot. There is no way you can afford to check and fold here, especially against anyone with an aggressive table image.

So, once you see the flop, you need to find the best way to get your money in. In my opinion, I like making a very scary 5-6bb bet into the pot on the flop (betting 1/2 your stack). Your hand is good, but its obviously vulnerable. Checking and then going all in is an OK scenario, but you can not risk a free card either ruining your action from a worse hand, or one that give your opponent a better hand that would've folded the flop.

So let your opponent know he can't make you fold on the flop, and go from there. As the way you played it, my chips would beat him to the pot.

-Jason

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when you "let your opponent know he can't make you fold on the flop," isn't that just going to let him get away from all of his missed hands? button has a very tight image, and we know villain likes to move chips around. this sounds like a spot he'll bluff at. it seems to me that the best way to get chips in is to c/r, or check/call, as it turned out.