Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It

[Jeffage]

Typical game, six handed. I have AKo on the button. Two callers, I raise, blinds fold and we see the flop three-handed. Flop is K-7-5, no suits. Check to me, I bet, first limper checkraises, second limper calls two cold and I call. First limper seems aggro, second one seems pretty tight so I'm concerned with his flop coldcall on this ragged board and I'm thinking set. Turn is a deuce. Check, check, check. River is a 9. Check to second player who bets, I ignore my read and decide to raise, saying I'll fold to a 3-bet. First player folds, second player now reraises. Why is it that I can read a situation so well but then do something like this anyway, and not only that, but pay it off? Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

Jeff