Virginia Tech Sucks

[lastchance]

We play poker. Just because raising in one spot is wrong doesn't mean raising in another is weak.

[Nottom]

The thing that consistantly infuriates me about the Hokies in games like this is the complete lack of urgency they show when down by a couple scores late in the 4th. Watch the last touchdown drive and see how often they got a first down and then still let 15-20 sec tick off the clock before they ran the next play. No one ever seemed to hurry back to the line or to the huddle, they were lining up as if time was a complete non-factor. I noticed it in the bowlgame against Auburn last year and in other games from years past that I can't remember now. Drives me crazy.

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We play poker. Just because raising in one spot is wrong doesn't mean raising in another is weak.

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Okay, well what if after analyzing the EV of raising compared to all of your other options it turns out raising is in fact weak?

[lastchance]

Then, obviously, you're right.

But it's not insanely clear that Beamer's decision was wrong either time.

Well, as for the punt, I agree, that was not clearly wrong. In fact, I'm pretty close to being okay with that move. The main reason i brought it up is I thought it demonstrated inconsistency with how beamer was coaching the game.

As for the two point conversion, i think probably the biggest thing convincing me that it was wrong is that fsu's defense had been playing great all game. We couldn't run on them, so they knew we would have to pass it in, and they pretty much neutralized vick's scrambling ability. With the pressure they were getting on him, even with a three man rush, there was a pretty good chance he would at least be hurried. I think all of these factors significantly lowered their chances of a successful two point conversion. I'd estimate it more in the 30% range. If that's the case, they only convert on the trifecta 2.7% of the time.

So let me ask you this....How low does their expected success rate on two point conversions need to be for it to be clearly wrong to go for two?

[MyTurn2Raise]

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I disagreed with the 2-pointer to cut it from 12 to 10. You need a 2 at some point if you are going for another touchdown and fg, but it's better to wait for the second td. It keeps the pressure on the opponents if they look up and later see they are only up 8, meaning the other team is within one score.


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I never understood this reasoning. I would always assume that the advantage of "knowing" whether they made the 2 point conversion would be important to the team trailing. If theyknow they need 2 TDs, they're not going to kick a FG on the next drive. Suppose they kick the XP, then kick a FG next drive, then take their time and score a TD with 30 seconds remaining. Now they have to go for 2. If they miss, they lose. Now if they went for 2 the first time, and missed the conversion they could have changed their strategy the rest of the game.

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IMO, it's more valuable for the opposing team to always feel like you are on their heels. I see them screwing up a higher percentage of the time if you kick to make it 11 and get another score. A FG makes it 8 and the other team feels *pressure* and crumbles because you are within one score. A TD and you go for two when the world is falling in on the leading team, which leads to a much higher conversion percentage. Perhaps I'm overrating this effect, but I don't think so.

In the V Tech/FSU example, it would've been much tougher to stop the Hokies going for two if the score was 27-22 compared to 27-15. 3 scores in a row would've been scarier to line up and stop. In addition, the TD that made it 27-15 happened with about 11 minutes on the clock. That's more than enough time for FSU to get another score (FG) and V Tech to catch them with 2 tds. It would've been a real pisser to have to go for two later because of a failed two before it was necessary at 27-15.

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My rule of thumb is to not go for two unless you have to.


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What the [censored] kind of rule is that? My "rule of thumb" is to do whatever gives my team the best chance of winning.

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My rule of thumb does give a team the best chance of winning. Don't go for two unless it's necessary. I cannot repeat that often enough. Teams piss away so many points, hidden points, and opportunities going for two that it drives me absolutely nuts.