Buying a new car pending ridiculous parlay hit.

[tomdemaine]

Take out a $35000 dollar loan at repayments of $50 a week and buy you car without crazy betting schemes. Although bear in mind that with the interest it'll probably take you 20 years to pay off. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
to give a sense of how crazy your plan is, when i read the header for this i assumed the post would be about how you're nine-tenths of the way through a parlay bet already, and you're thinking about what kind of car to get if you hit the last game.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Ken_AA]

Especially if you put in a few more hours at poker each week (or however long it would take you) to make an EXTRA 50. go for the homerun if you want to. however i agree that your odds can't be better then the 1 in 165 that was posted, but then again if someone offered me a 50 dollar lottery ticket with a 1 in 165 chance of winning a car i would probably take them up on it.

Ken

The problem with the 165 to 1 calculation is very successful gamblers (those who you assume can hit 60% in the LR) rarely get 10 very good games worth betting on a weekly basis. So really that calculation doesn't mean anything. The real odds are up in the 4 digits to 1 range.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with the 165 to 1 calculation is very successful gamblers (those who you assume can hit 60% in the LR) rarely get 10 very good games worth betting on a weekly basis. So really that calculation doesn't mean anything. The real odds are up in the 4 digits to 1 range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo, my best week ever in NFL was 9-1. I doubt I'll ever beat that. Even in college hoops when I've had super-de-duper hot days like 28-4, I've never nailed 10 games in a row. Talk about hard.

PowerBall is up to $200mm, why not buy $50 worth of tix, or get 9 more friends to do same and buy $500?

Naj

[ QUOTE ]


PowerBall is up to $200mm, why not buy $50 worth of tix, or get 9 more friends to do same and buy $500?

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Because having 1 powerball ticket is the same (~) as having 500.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with the 165 to 1 calculation is very successful gamblers (those who you assume can hit 60% in the LR) rarely get 10 very good games worth betting on a weekly basis. So really that calculation doesn't mean anything. The real odds are up in the 4 digits to 1 range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that was my original point.

However, even a monkey has a 1023:1 chance of winning. If even a couple of your bets are well above average, you can drop it under four digits pretty easily.

On the other hand, if I could even come close to finding 10 60% games a week, I'd just bet them all seperately. You'll get to the same place eventually, but with less variance.

[Jibbs]

I will also be a source of questionable optimism in this thread. I had an incredible run for two weeks about 3 years ago. I hit 10 for 10 in week one and followed it with a 10-11 the following week. That being said I will probably never come within 2 games of ever doing that again for the rest of my life.

This plan just may work but you may have to wait 30 years for it to plan out. Enjoy your hovercar when you get it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Ken_AA]

I'm not saying I'd do it, but if this guy is winning pretty much every week at poker go for it. would be pretty wild if you could make it through even 7 or eight one weekend... then crussing when you lost the monday nighter.

ken

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with the 165 to 1 calculation is very successful gamblers (those who you assume can hit 60% in the LR) rarely get 10 very good games worth betting on a weekly basis. So really that calculation doesn't mean anything. The real odds are up in the 4 digits to 1 range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that was my original point.



[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I should've said mid to high 3 digits to 1, not 4 digits.

Also, if I had to hazard a guess about an unforeseen side effect, it would be that the constant losing would erode your betting discipline as the strategy continued. You'd get a few weeks where you hit 7, 8, maybe even 9 games, and develop wild, misguided theories for game-picking to get you over the hump. Maybe you should sign up a psych grad student who can use you as a research specimen and get paid for doing this. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]