A place that I don't think I can ever (correctly) fold in

TheDelChop · #1 08-12-2005, 12:10 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (12.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Agree? Disagree? I'll post my thoughts in a bit.

ArturiusX · #2 08-12-2005, 12:22 AM

I dont think I fold either. Against a two pair we have outs.

Buck_65 · #3 08-12-2005, 12:31 AM

Honestly, I fold the turn or raise it. Probably folding, since I really don't think you're ahead, and if you have outs at all, how many do you give yourself (and what are they)? Showing down as cheaply as possible isn't bad, though.

TheDelChop · #4 08-12-2005, 12:35 AM

You are getting 10-1 on the call, how do you not stay with your draw? Why raise and put in more bets when your probably behind? I call and reevaluate the river.

Buck_65 · #5 08-12-2005, 12:44 AM

I think you're drawing dead or to 3 outs a significant portion of the time. I'd generously give you 1.5 outs as of the turn. The number of times you hit an "out" and still lose definitely decrease the amount of outs you can reasonably give yourself.

We can all agree you're not likely to be ahead here, and IMO you can't draw, so I'm still folding the turn.

TheDelChop · #6 08-12-2005, 12:52 AM

How can you be so sure you're drawing to 3 outs? The villain in this hand is a poster, which means that he could have any variety of two pair hands. As far as sets go, I drastically doubt that he has AA, so you are left with two sets and the unlikely possibility that he has 4-3 for the straight. I would say that you probably have a lot more like 6 outs. This makes folding here a mistake.

DownUnder · #7 08-12-2005, 01:45 AM

Villain was a poster who checked, so could have anything.

On the turn, you have 6 outs to beat A2 and A5, 8 outs to beat 52 and you're drawing dead against 22, 55 and 34. We can probably ignore the possibility of him holding the last two Aces.

There are 16 combinations of 34, 3 ways for 22 and 3 ways for 55 - that's 22 ways you're drawing dead.

There are 6 ways each for A5 and A2 and 9 ways for 52, so 21 ways you have outs (more if there are any other holdings villain would cap the flop with - unlikely, but you never know I guess).

So it looks like you're drawing dead half of the time and have 6-8 outs the other half - that's an average of 3-4 outs. Getting 11.5-1 on the turn makes the call pretty marginal.

DU

JacksonTens · #8 08-12-2005, 02:19 AM

Is everyon here cool with the flop 3-bet? I mean unless the guy is raising a draw, (maybe) but isn't ATo a payoff hand? I think with this much action your boat is already sunk call the flop raise, and check/fold the Turn. Yeah you have out but with no PFR your paying too much. ATo sucks.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

oreogod · #9 08-12-2005, 02:48 AM

Am I the only one calling the flop raise in hopes of check raising the CO on the turn?

oreogod · #10 08-12-2005, 04:29 AM

Oh well...either way, Im still calling the flop raise and CRing the turn.