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#1
06-08-2005, 03:51 PM
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Standard Deviation and Downswing
For those long time winners, please share your win rate and standard deviation. How should standard deviation be calculated from Poker Tracker? From this, it should be very easy to predict the probability of downswings.
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#2
06-08-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation and Downswing
[ QUOTE ]
For those long time winners, please share your win rate and standard deviation. How should standard deviation be calculated from Poker Tracker? From this, it should be very easy to predict the probability of downswings. [/ QUOTE ] Also the probability of upswings. It seems 95% of people look at their upswings, and think they can achieve the same in the long run. Also we are always hearing what people are able to make, like $40/hr in 2/4 or 3/6, but it always ends up, it is only during upswings.
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#3
06-08-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation and Downswing
Guess I've had an 100k hands long upswing then. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
My flatmate is fast approaching 150k hands with a winrate over 4bb/100 at the sh ~3/6 tables, while 6-tabling. I envy him. (That would be a 2.5 years long upswing in a casino with a good dealer, playing 40 hour weeks.)
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#5
06-08-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation and Downswing
[ QUOTE ]
Click on "Session Notes" tab Click on "More Detail..." Standard deviation is located in the bottom window [/ QUOTE ] Okay, thanks for the help, here are my stats from poker tracker. My winnings are actually not this high. Not sure why, except maybe a lot of losing hands were not entered for some reason. I have over 100k hands for 15/30 and 20/40. WR/100=1.54 or $57,500 SD = 13.23 So what are the odds I'm down $14,000? Not sure how many hands in this downswing.
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#6
06-08-2005, 10:44 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation and Downswing
[ QUOTE ]
Also the probability of upswings. It seems 95% of people look at their upswings, and think they can achieve the same in the long run. Also we are always hearing what people are able to make, like $40/hr in 2/4 or 3/6, but it always ends up, it is only during upswings. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't correct at all.
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#7
06-08-2005, 11:05 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation and Downswing
Chances? Low
The problem is...if you missing losing hands your SD is higher. 15BB SD is more what I have seen. Still 300 BB is just 20 SD That just sucks though. I feel your pain though. -SFWUSC
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