A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea

[damaniac]

Yeah, like I mentioned in my follow-up, most of the hands we are ahead of are A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, so if an A/K hits, we're behind pretty much everything. The K isn't as bad as the A for a pair (more likely to have Ax than Kx), but then it makes JT a straight, and maybe pairs up KJ or KT if he's betting a gutshot/flushdraw combo. So I think we can fold those cards.

[SNOWBALL138]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be a lot easier to discuss if we did this as a play along.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Well, maybe I'm playing too much 6max lately but my estimate is a lot higher than everyone elses. My first thought was about 56% and I would be pretty shocked if it was less than 50%.

Edit: meh, thought about it some more and I would revise my estimate to like 52%, I'll fool around with PS a little later.

[WillMagic]

Our equity is going to be between 50-55%. Most of the time we're up against a better diamond or a Q, and those two possiblities cancel out. Occassionally the BB will have a 9 or a lower pocket pair with a diamond, but he will also occasionally have flopped a set or a flush, or even top pair with a higher diamond.

I always just call the check-raise.

If the turn is a diamond, I'm betting if he checks to me and just calling if he bets.

If the turn is a non-diamond...I'm raising. I'm raising non-diamond aces, I'm raising non-diamond kings, I'm raising everything, with the intent of taking a free showdown if I don't improve on the river. If I get three-bet, I'm calling and then folding the river UI.

Will

[W. Deranged]

Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

[Jake (The Snake)]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.5744 % 57.32% 00.26% { TdTh }
Hand 2: 42.4256 % 42.17% 00.26% { JJ-99, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 55, 4c4d, 4d4h, 4d4s, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdJd, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Q7s+, Q5s, J9s+, T9s, AcJd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AsJd, AcTd, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AsTd, Ac9d, Ad9c, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9d, As9d, Ac8d, Ad8c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, As8d, Ad7c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ac6d, Ad6c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ah6d, As6d, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad2c, Ad2h, Ad2s, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, Kc9d, Kd9c, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9d, Ks9d, Kd8c, Kd8h, Kd8s, Kd7c, Kd7h, Kd7s, QJo, QcTd, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTd, QsTd, Q9o, Qc8d, Qd8c, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qh8d, Qs8d, Qc7d, Qd7c, Qd7h, Qd7s, Qh7d, Qs7d, JTo, Jc9d, Jd9c, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9d, Js9d, Jc8d, Jd8c, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jh8d, Js8d, Tc9d, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9d, Ts9d, Tc8d, Td8c, Td8h, Td8s, Th8d, Ts8d, 9c8d, 9d8c, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9h8d, 9s8d, 9c7d, 9d7c, 9d7h, 9d7s, 9h7d, 9s7d, 9c6d, 9d6c, 9d6h, 9d6s, 9h6d, 9s6d, 8c7d, 8d7c, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7d, 8s7d, 7c6d, 7d6c, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6d, 7s6d }



Think I included enough hands? Now the 57% should be pushed down a little bit because it's a little more likely he'd c/r the flop with hands that have better than 43% equity, but not that much since even the hands that are below that are not far below that. I think a reasonable equity guess is anywhere between 50-55% as Will suggested.


Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%

If you could explain why, that would be even better. I'll post the answers a little later with some explanations. I think they are pretty interesting.

[W. Deranged]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake. Thanks dude. This is a good analysis.

I originally projected the equity number way too low (I think my original intuition was 35% or something).

As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).

My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

What was interesting for me was that the turn was a blank and the river was a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A. Villain bet out and I determined that there was very little way I was ahead and folded.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).


[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow forgot about that. 45-50 sounds about right then. I'd still expect 50-55 online though.

[ QUOTE ]
My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small .


[/ QUOTE ]

That likely would have been my line too, but I'm not 100% sure any more. I think there are a few cards besides T's which I might raise now. Want to take a crack at my little matching quiz? I think it could embarass most people, including myself. Hopefully I didn't mess it up.

[ QUOTE ]
I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake

[/ QUOTE ]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you and your excellent posts... and so the Small Stakes love-fest continues.

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming non-diamond?
If it's the turn: bet if checked to, otherwise call.
If it's the river: bet if checked to, otherwise fold.

[Guruman]

--blind response--

I think raising this flop and checking through the flop will cause our opponent to play as straightforwardly as possible.

If he has a weak queen and no diamond, he'll likely just call and lead a non-:diamdond: turn. if the turn comes with a diamond he may try to check/fold and then donk the river after you check through.

If he has a made flush he's looking to go to war. he'll cap the flop and lead the turn. We can either call and pray his diamonds are lower than ten, or just fold out and move on. If he checks the turn, we just check behind and draw to beat him.

If he has a middle pair and one diamond (like 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) we get the max value out of our hand here, and when we check through we know we can call a bet on the river no matter what it is.