Resisting the urge to check to the raiser

paperboyNC · #1 10-13-2005, 11:14 AM

Reads

MP2 is 33/11/2 (VPIP, PFR, AGGR) after only 30 hands.
UTG+2 is 18/6/1.

The Hand

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets....

My thoughts

Flop: MP2 is unlikely to hold J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I worried though, that 3-betting the flop could scare away UTG+2 and end up spewing chips to MP2

Turn: The turn is about as blank a blank as blanks come and significantly increase my estimated pot equity. If MP2 has a six, I'm drawing thin (2 outs) and I'm getting raised again. I don't want to give a free card, but what do I do if I get raised?

ErrantNight · #2 10-13-2005, 11:17 AM

3-bet the flop

krimson · #3 10-13-2005, 11:21 AM

This looks good. I would stop'n'go this whole hand as it is the best way to trap UTG+2 for extra bets. Be cautious if he all of a sudden wakes up and raises on the turn.

krimson · #4 10-13-2005, 11:33 AM

I take this back after thinking about it. Your hand is vulnerable so I would 3-bet and get it HU.

brazilio · #5 10-13-2005, 11:35 AM

I usually just 3-bet the flop, but if I'm doing a SnG here I'm 3-betting the turn.

winky51 · #6 10-13-2005, 12:17 PM

3 bet flop UTG+2 is probably holding a JTs, JQs, JKs, AJ (the low PF raise % tells you that) or 2 paint with hearts.

VERY VERY unlikely he has a 6x or JJ in his hand. With JJ he would have raised. if he limped with 66 well yourscrewed and he won't tell you he has the quads till the end.

MP2 probably has 2 paint (J in hand) or 2 hearts and is trying for the free card considering his #s. The only hand he might have a 6 with is Axs.

Make him and the other player PAY!

3 bet, if called only bet the turn and work from there.

If capped it really depends on UTG+2. You 3 bet UTG+2 calls, now MP2 with a flush draw can CAP since he is getting 3:1 to hit his draw with his 9 outs. If UTG+2 folds and MP2 CAPs well now it depends on the read of the player. but I would still lead the turn. He could have AJ, or A6s. No freebies for the ace. AND if he is the type to CAP with a draw then you must bet the turn.

winky51 · #7 10-13-2005, 12:18 PM

Almost forgot. With his #s Id probably call down. If he was a 45 VPIP with low aggression Id probably fold to a turn raise. Of course if you see him bluffing a lot then its an obvious call down.

W. Deranged · #8 10-13-2005, 01:05 PM

The fact is you are probably good here on the flop and it'd be nice to force UTG+2 to face two bets. Three-betting the flop and betting the turn has numerous advantages over calling the flop raise and donk-betting.

In general, I save this type of stop'n'go line for situations where:

1. I don't have protection reasons to reraise the flop (note that here we'd like to push out/charge UTG+2 who may have overcards or other outs against us).

2. I have a weaker hand and I'd prefer to keep my total investment small.

3. I have a really, really strong hand and I don't want to push out players by facing them with two bets or more.

4. I'm doing it for tactical/confusion/value reasons in a heads-up pot. (Often I'll do this against real aggro types and so on...)

None of those apply here, so I like just three-betting and leading back. You can start to reconsider if you get capped.

paperboyNC · #9 10-13-2005, 01:10 PM

Deranged,

Thanks for the response. While MP2 isn't likely to hold JJ or a 6, he could be limping with A6s, 76s, 65s, etc. I feel I scare everyone away when I'm ahead, and lose a lot of money when I'm behind.

callmedonnie · #10 10-13-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Deranged,

Thanks for the response. While MP2 isn't likely to hold JJ or a 6, he could be limping with A6s, 76s, 65s, etc. I feel I scare everyone away when I'm ahead, and lose a lot of money when I'm behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to play strong hands strongly. Since people like to play Aces, you need to charge them to do so at this point in the hand. You most likely have the best hand and you should be pushing them. Sometimes you will lose and yea, the losses are bigger when you play aggressively, but so are the pots you win.