Very simple preflop question.

[DrSavage]

38/0/0.5 over 50 hands open raises on the button (yes, PFR is zero). BB is laggy. You have ATs in the small blind and ...

[Catt]

Meh - not that simple. First, I really do vary my play quite a bit based upon what I think of the player. 50 hands is not enough for me to put stock in the fact that the guy's PFR is 0. If I've seen him show down QQ or AK or seomthing when he didn't raise pre-flop, then I'll give the 50 hand stat read more weight. Second, I'll also consider what he's been limping with 38% of the time, and what he's like post-flop -- I'd be more inclined to play here if his post-flop play, even with strong hands, is weak and he's likely to give free cards / make bad plays even with position (the 0.5 AF implies this, but again there's the 50 hand read). Third, I'd want to know what sort of LAG BB is. There are in my experience lots of different types of LAGs, some of which are much tougher to play against than others.

If I am comfortable that his stats over 50 hands approximates his style reasonably closely, I have little trouble throwing this away. If I think he's probably been pretty card dead, and or is capable of a steal range that belies his stats, I'd be three-betting pretty easily. If BB is a tough LAG, I'm more inclined to 3-bet; if BB is a bit of a donkish LAG, I might find this a spot to actually cool-call in the SB here.

I don't think this is a particularly simple PF question, and I think, for me at least, it is highly contextual. If the two players are totally unknown (just datamined stats), I'd default to 3-betting.

[w_alloy]

I think a fold>call>raise, but it is close. The combined facts that the BB is laggy and he hasnt raised for 50 hands make a steal unlikely. If he has an ace, you are likely dominated, and if he doesnt, you likely have 3 outs.

Edit: I posted without seeing catt's post, and I agree that this is extremely contextual. Factors can swing it any of 3 ways. But if, for example, all your stats were datamined and you just sat down, I think this would be a close fold.

[Trix]

If the stats are from mining then I 3bet.

There aren´t alot of people who just raise monsters, especially when on the button. The very low pfr guys I´ve played with seem to raise at random sometimes. I´ll respect his raise if he caps.

Edit: Things are different if you´ve been at the table for all those hands and seen him limp big hands, but not big pairs, Aces.

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]

There aren´t alot of people who just raise monsters, especially when on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kinda forgot about this. It is also my experience that most guys with PFRs of 5 actually limp the top 8% and raise the next 5% most of the time, and are sometimes quite random.

I change my vote to 3-bet.

re raise

[DrSavage]

For the record, 0 PFR had AJo there. I've decided to flat call in the hand to let the lag in and then try to flop something good, but i think all the options are debatable here.

[Trix]

It´s a fair option except, you will lose with the best hand whenever he is "mixing it up" and you miss.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

There aren´t alot of people who just raise monsters, especially when on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kinda forgot about this. It is also my experience that most guys with PFRs of 5 actually limp the top 8% and raise the next 5% most of the time, and are sometimes quite random.

I change my vote to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but just want to mention that this has always puzzled me. What is the common type of thinking that makes someone so reluctant to raise in general, yet more prone to raise the "pretty good" cards rather than monsters?

[imitation]

I never-ever-ever cold call in the SB....