Top Full House

Dick Danger · #1 03-19-2005, 09:52 PM

I'm holding KKA3, the board is K 8 8 Q 9.

That was good part,
first to act bets about half the pot
second to act bets the pot
third folds
I bet the pot
first guy folds
second guy bets the pot back at me

At this point I think my brain slipped into neutral because I bet the pot back at him. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Lucky for me my brain kicked back into gear and I only called when he bet it back at me. He showed 8899. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

This has happened to me more than once this week, I'm almost getting gun shy with the top full house.

Clearly betting the pot the second time was monumentally stupid, bet I'm ok with the first pot bet. Whaddya ya'll think?

Jorge10 · #2 03-19-2005, 10:50 PM

It happens, you had to bet the pot the first time, I mean this week alone ive had second set on the flop and have run into top set. And im talking about q/j/3 type of flops where I got the jacks, or the tens in two different cases. If the board would have paired with smaller cards you could easily be facing a bet from someone that had an under set like myself. Luck can be brutal sometimes, it happens, good play just horrible luck.

mxyzptlk · #3 03-21-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This has happened to me more than once this week, I'm almost getting gun shy with the top full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

As my friend once said, worrying about quads everytime you have top full house is like worrying about monsters under the bed. It's just bad luck -- idiots will push 2nd full house all the time.

NJchick · #4 03-21-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As my friend once said, worrying about quads everytime you have top full house is like worrying about monsters under the bed. It's just bad luck -- idiots will push 2nd full house all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent reply.

To the original poster. You should be THANKFUL these people are playing 8899 in O/8.

Buzz · #5 03-22-2005, 07:23 AM

Dick - Simulation result:

Board is Kc8c8dQd9h.
Hand is KhKdAs3c
One of eight opponents with random hands is dealt 88XX 512 times in 10000.
One of five opponents with random hands is dealt 88XX 376 times in 10000.

No guarantees anyone will play 88XX if they get dealt it.

Buzz

chaos · #6 03-22-2005, 09:08 AM

I figure it is less than a 1 in 20 chance someone has you beat with quads. So I would make a pot size raise. Whether you should call when he comes back over the top depends on what you think the chances are he would make that play with a losing hand like QQ. You may get an idea from the earlier betting rounds.

MarkD · #7 03-23-2005, 06:15 PM

I know I'm bumping an old thread but I want to know what program Buzz is using as a "simulator" here.

[ QUOTE ]
Dick - Simulation result:

Board is Kc8c8dQd9h.
Hand is KhKdAs3c
One of eight opponents with random hands is dealt 88XX 512 times in 10000.
One of five opponents with random hands is dealt 88XX 376 times in 10000.

[/ QUOTE ]

DyessMan89 · #8 03-23-2005, 06:31 PM

The first pot bet was ok, but the second one was not good.

I dont like re-raising with second nut hands on the river. I actually might have thought of just calling the river, but probobly would have raised like you did.

Buzz · #9 03-24-2005, 09:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I want to know what program Buzz is using as a "simulator" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Mark - I used Wilson's Turbo Omaha-High-Low.

I put Hero in Seat #10, gave him KhKdAs3c, and made the board Kc8c8dQd9h.
I put eight opponents who would not fold in seats #2 through #9 with random hands. (I also ran the sim a second 10000 times using five non-folding opponents with random hands in seats #5 through #9).

Thus Hero had a king boat each of the 10000 times the simulator dealt cards.
The only way Hero could lose would be if one of his opponents was dealt a pair of eights (thus ending up with quad eights).

In the nine handed game, Hero lost 512 times (out of 10000 trials) while in the six handed game, Hero lost 376 times in 10000 trials. The only way Hero could lose with his hand and that board would be to quad eights.

I used a line-up of all Painless Potters as the non-folding characters in these sims.

If you ran the same sim again, you'd probably get slightly different results. That's the way it is with sims.

I liked Greg's response in the original post (about one time in twenty). I think that's a reasonably conservative ball park figure.

In a real nine-handed game, some people (me for example) would probably fold a starting hand with a pair of eights. In a game where an average of six saw the flop, maybe the frequency you'd encounter quad eights would be more like the result predicted by the six handed sims.

Buzz

MarkD · #10 03-24-2005, 11:17 AM

Thanks Buzz.