Online poker’s days are numbered ?

lambchop_ft · #1 08-22-2005, 11:18 AM

Hi all

First of all let me say I’m a newbie – apologies if this topic has been discussed many times before (but I’d be grateful for details of where to find more information).

Should I be worried that online poker’s days are numbered ?

Imagine this scenario …

Somebody writes some poker software that recommends how to play in real time. You plug in your hole cards, position, the board, and other players’ actions - and it tells you to bet, call, fold etc.

The software gets popular with beginner players, who find they can make a bit of money on the micro-limit tables, instead of losing money like they were before. (I’m assuming limit holdem, since that’s where most beginners start).

Another company notices the potential, and writes a better program. This one is capable of winning money at the $3-$6 level. Lots of people start buying it. This enables someone with no poker knowledge, and not much intelligence, to make money playing online. Eventually programs like this become widespread (even more so than Pokertracker is now).

Wouldn’t this kill the online game ? If poker players make money from weaker players, all the way down the chain, then we all need a good supply of beginners at the bottom of the pyramid. If beginners can buy a program that plays decently, they won’t lose as much money.

Worse than that – why would they even start to play, if they know their opponents are probably using computer advisors ?

Notice that this scenario doesn’t require a program that can beat top players, or even good players – just one that can beat the many fish who are swimming into the game.

There are poker simulation programs out there, that can probably beat a lot of fishlike players already – so I’m guessing it will be technically feasible.

Can this happen ? Would online poker go into decline if it did ?

I hope you convince me that this scenario is flawed ! Thanks in advance for your contributions.

Mister B.

jman220 · #2 08-22-2005, 11:23 AM

This already has happenned, this is old news. Do a forum search for "bot." Most of them are not that good and can only just barely beat the micros. And there is serious doubt as to whether a world class bot could be developed any time soon. Also, sites implement software to detect bots, it will just be a constant struggle between sites trying to detect bots and bots coming up with new ways to avoid detection.

Arnfinn Madsen · #3 08-22-2005, 11:26 AM

There is a million threads on this, so I will give you what I believe is the common conception:

These programs will at some point in time be able to beat micro limit and then subsequently higher limit and it may one day kill the online poker industry (not many want to play chess for money on the internet). It is way into the future though, if you study hard on the game you will stay ahead of the bots for a long, long time.

primetime32 · #4 08-22-2005, 11:28 AM

party poker is already banning people who use software that isn't nearly as dangerous. I cant imagine these multimillion dollar companies being unable to detect if a bot is playing. We already know that there have been some discussions about party actually being able to see what programs are running on your computer while you are playing, so a bot would be easy to detect.

I am sure there will be people who will be smart enough to avoid detection, but once a particular program was mass produced the major poker sites would figure out a way to detect it. Yes, they would probably be a step behind, but by the time a few thousand people had the program they would figure out a way to stop its use.

Lets remember that most players play online poker for fun and wouldnt want to risk getting banned if they got caught. And some players actually have ethics (as noted by the online poker tax discussions).

I think the problem with bots are far narrower and don't threaten the entire industry.

Uglyowl · #5 08-22-2005, 11:47 AM

Good idea... I will have a program done by tonight and rule world!

lambchop_ft · #6 08-22-2005, 12:15 PM

Many thanks for your replies so far.

Perhaps detection could be a problem for the sites. You could use a second PC, that wasn't even connected to the internet ...

primetime32 · #7 08-22-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Many thanks for your replies so far.

Perhaps detection could be a problem for the sites. You could use a second PC, that wasn't even connected to the internet ...

[/ QUOTE ]

and how would the second computer tell the main computer what to do without a program running between the two? And now we have people spending money on 2nd computers. Again, this is potentially possible for a few people, but i dont see hundreds of thousands of online players going this route.

lambchop_ft · #8 08-22-2005, 02:38 PM

I think the problem is not just about bots though. People could use advisor programs "manually".

Then anybody could make money - you wouldn't need any poker knowledge at all.

TheHip41 · #9 08-22-2005, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Many thanks for your replies so far.

Perhaps detection could be a problem for the sites. You could use a second PC, that wasn't even connected to the internet ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ooooooooor, you could learn to not suck at poker.

Innocentius · #10 08-23-2005, 06:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Many thanks for your replies so far.

Perhaps detection could be a problem for the sites. You could use a second PC, that wasn't even connected to the internet ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Another chess analogy: There are actually internet chess tournaments with cash prizes. The hosts (eg Chessbase) use advanced engine detection programs, that exclusively analyze playing style (since the cheaters are using second computers). It is quite common that engine users are caught.
I don't know if such software can be written for poker, but I assume the sites will try.