I'm turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?

[Entity]

Party 10/20, full ring. 4 folds, and then a terrible fish limps. A 13/8 player (Jason says over 2300 hands, but my read is that he's aggro and decent but overaggro in the wrong spots and definitely capable of realizing his position and concepts like isolation etc) now raises. Next player, a TAG, folds. You're OTB with AQo.

You...

[newhizzle]

easy 3-bet, if hes aware of position and isolation, hes raising light here

[WillMagic]

Easy three-bet.

AT is in his range. As is AJ. And KQ. And KJ. And maybe even A9s and KTs.

Will

[mterry]

If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is there's at least a 3% margin of error in a sample as small as 2300 hands. Just a guess, based on how I've seen myself portrayed over 1k, 2k, and 5k hand samples.

Rob

[ActionBob]

This should be very standard 3-bet.

-ActionBob

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

well lets assume hes not aware of position and raising about 8% of his hands here, according to pokerstove, were about even money(53/47 dog) against the top 8% of hands, plus we have the postflop advantages of position and the inititive and can more easily knock out the blinds by 3-betting

and im very confident that hes rasing more hands in this spot than he is on average overall, making this an easy 3-bet

if he opens UTG, we have an easy fold because he is raising less than he is on average overall

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[/ QUOTE ]

so... do you think he raises the exact same hand range from any position or situation?

i think he raises less than 8% of his hands from UTG right?

this means hes going to have to raise more than 8% from somewhere to even it out at 8, i think hes definatley raising light from this spot and we have an easy 3-bet

edit: see my post directly above for more on why

this isn't a test. this isn't even a [censored] homework assignment. this is the first day of pre-k when you learn how to tie your shoes and hang up your [censored] coat.

cap that [censored].