I hit on the turn but now am scared

bambi · #1 12-11-2005, 09:21 PM

Everyone in this hand is pretty fishy,Villan however hasnt done anything really bad that i have noticed, so i have respect for his raise.

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

River: (17 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 20 BB

W. Deranged · #2 12-11-2005, 09:31 PM

You overplayed your hand in my opinion.

Once MP2 raises on the turn, your hand is really not that good. His hand is unlikely to be one pair or less, and it's not going to be a semi-bluff often against 3 opponents. So he usually has two pair or better. Your two pair doesn't stack up well, though it's reasonable you're chopping as most of the other two pair possibilities are really ugly (J7, J4, etc...) and villain would have to be pretty loos to play them. The straight isn't hugely likely either. A set is a very real possibility though.

As it stands, you are, though, dodging all of the 8s, 3s, often the 5s, any J, any 4, and a bunch of other two pair cards you don't even know. That's at least 18 cards you don't want to see and it's likely more like 20. Your equity is really not that high even when you are ahead.

I think the best plan is not to put any additional money in of your own volition. I don't see much tactical value in a raise. UTG isn't folding often anyway, and that would be the only person we'd want folding.

As it stands, my turn decision is definitely between calling (and check-folding a LOT of rivers), and just folding right now. The pot really isn't that big. You're probably looking at getting 4-1 on a call down or something like that, since the light pre-flop and flop action means there's very little money in the pot beyond what is going in on the turn. You have 4 outs to improve, and those may be dirty if you're up against a set. Many cards that could hit on the river hurt you.

So, I don't know. Needing 20% equity here, I think I probably like a fold. With specific reads that MP2's turn raise is often one pair or less and that button, UTG and so on will often proceed with weak hands, calling becomes an option. I never really like raising, though.

QTip · #3 12-11-2005, 09:33 PM

Seems standard to me.

#4 12-11-2005, 09:36 PM

Looks good to me. You get 9:1 on the flop call, and hit 2 pair on the turn. I like the 3 bet. Everyone calls down the river so you drove fear into thier hearts.

I have been running into an issue myself; where I will count outs on the flop then one of them will hit and suddenly I'm not confident in my hand . . . this is where I realize I am not counting outs correctly. I should be devaluing some of my outs. . . don't know if anybody else has that experience [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

W. Deranged · #5 12-11-2005, 09:38 PM

A numerical addition: because we're dodging close to half the deck and need around 18-20% equity to merit a calldown here, we need to have the best hand safely 40% of the time to merit continuing past the turn. We need to consider that we're laying heavy reverse implied odds as there will be situations where we might need to pay off some river bets on unattractive river cards, or on cards that make others two pair but we don't know it.

QTip · #6 12-11-2005, 09:52 PM

whoops...I misread the turn action completely.

bambi · #7 12-11-2005, 10:02 PM

I really didnt no what to do with that turn card, the thing i took into account when three betting was the two cold callers, i had no idea what hand to put them on, i agree my equity here is very low, i was lost with this one