wizards/clippers tonight

[mike l.]

im pretty sure the wizards will handle the clippers in washington. am i wrong?

Two things to consider: (1) Antonio Daniels is out for the Wizards, to be replaced by Jarvis Hayes, and (2) Maggette might be back tonight for LAC. The Clippers have played pretty well without him.

[sublime]

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am i wrong?

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i hope so [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TheRover]

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i hope not [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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under also plz

Hmm. I got under 186.5 at -129. I wonder if I should try to middle this.

[sublime]

Hmm. I got under 186.5 at -129. I wonder if I should try to middle this.

why, do you think over 182.5 is a good play?

[TheRover]

No, not really. I'm just wondering out loud so to speak.

[sublime]

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No, not really. I'm just wondering out loud so to speak.

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if you dont think over 182.5 is a good play, then you dont go for the 'middle'. what ends up happening is this. lines that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all. if you try and 'middle' your good plays, you suck up all the EV in those and remain on the coinflips at full price.

of course, if you think there is value in the over 182.5 then its a independent +EV bet and the chance to catch a middle is just an added bonus.

[ElSapo]

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that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all.

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Hey Sublime,

Can you explain this a bit more?

ElSapo

[sublime]

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[ QUOTE ]
that move for you (like this one) have a greater chance of winning than plays that move against you, or not at all.

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Hey Sublime,

Can you explain this a bit more?

ElSapo

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look at it from a pure marketplace perspective. he 'bought' the under at 188 and its now selling at 182, giving him a boatload of value. people often oversimplify (or ironically, over complicate)sports betting into saying its all about picking winners. now, of course you need to pick more winners than losers to make money. however, in reality you are trying to beat the market. the same way a day trader at home does etc.

example:

this weekends game between SD and NYJ. the market was dealing a 6/6.5 everywhere. i found a 7 -110 on the jets, now despite having zero opinion on the game, i am forced (as a +EV bettor) to take NYJ +7.

i hope that makes sense, i am probably not good at explaining this stuff.

[DougOzzzz]

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am i wrong?

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yes