4 handed live hand against justin a

[kurosh]

Up until the river, I can't really comment because it's based a lot on previous play and your reads on each other, but the river is horrible imo. I'd rather bet and maybe fold out an A-high or better K-high.

You beat QT,Q9,Q8,Q6,Q5,T9,T8,T6,T5,98,96,95,86 and 85. Very few of those are reasonable.

I don't think he calls the turn with air. It looks like a PP. 88, 66 or 55 probably.

[gaming_mouse]

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Should have been more explicit--Betting vs. Check-raising.

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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?

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he doesnt ahve to fold it 28% of the time cuz mike will often draw out even when justin calls.

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Sure, but note that I wasn't saying he must fold 28% of the time. He must bet/fold 28% of the time. Since he will sometimes check behind, he must fold more than 28% of the time.

Also, we are giving up some fold equity, presumably, by choosing to try for a c/r instead of betting. There are 3 separate questons then:

1. Is a turn bet +EV?
2. Is a turn c/r +EV?
3. If they are both +EV, which is more so?

EDIT: These comments are less relevant in light of Jeff's comments about his turn check being a mistake.

[joker122]

when he calls the turn it's almost always with a hand that beats you (besides 65), no? i fold the river.

[gaming_mouse]

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He doesn't always have A high, but if he checks it he is giving a free card when we're a ~2:1 dog and if he bets it, I think he's folding often enough for the check-raise to be profitable.

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I see, so we give him the chance to make a mistake by checking behind -- I didn't see that before. Thanks.

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I don't know where you got the 28% figure--the check-raise doesn't have to be successful nearly that often. Quick calculation says 13%.

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?

[NLSoldier]

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?


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he doenst have to fold for us to win. our equity is not 0%.

[Jeff W]

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[gaming_mouse]

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he doenst have to fold for us to win. our equity is not 0%.

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yes, you're right.

[gaming_mouse]

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Very smart. This assumes we follow up with a river bet though (on a non-A river), right?

[Jeff W]

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Very smart. This assumes we follow up with a river bet though (on a non-A river), right?

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Newp. 5 bets in the pot...BUT we're definitely at least calling. So we're comparing check-raising to check-calling.

So 6:1, but we have outs, so we're not putting a full bet in. Thus, 634/46) assuming 12 outs.

[ALL1N]

OMG I think you should fold the flop!!