Question about Abdul's Theory of Sucking Out

[sherbert]

Hi

Abdul's theory of sucking out has some very helpful tables on odds you need to chase. Abdul outs

The part I can't seem to get a grasp of is the following table:

BETTING OR RAISING FOR IMMEDIATE PROFIT
Try to get money into the pot if you will win the pot more than your fair share. You will win more than your fair share of the time when you have more than the number of outs shown below for the number of opponents:
Betting or Raising Breakeven Win Chance & Outs for # of Opponents

# Opponents Who Will Be Calling Chance to Win You Needto be Breakeven on Bet Corresponding Number of Outs

1 1 in 2 23
2 1 in 3 15 1/3
3 1 in 4 11 1/2
4 1 in 5 9 1/5
5 1 in 6 7 2/3
6 1 in 7 6 1/2
7 1 in 8 5 3/4
8 1 in 9 5 1/9


The bit that gives me the problem is the last column: Corresponding number of outs.

What does this represent?

Say you have a big pair, where does the figure of 23 appear from if you have one opponent?

Thanks for your help.

[Lost Wages]

Ok, first of all, he is talking about drawing hands here not betting or raising when you think that you have the best made hand. You can consider any hand to be a drawing hand but a big pair is a very poor drawing hand, having only 2 outs if it's a pocket pair.

What he is really talking about here is straight or flush draws that can be bet or raised for value. That is, even though you know that you don't currently have the best hand, you are still profiting when your bet is called because of the likelyhood that you will make your draw.

As a hypothetical example; suppose that on the flop you have a draw that will make a winning hand by the river 1 time out of 3 (2:1 against). There is a bet and 3 callers. You raise knowing that all 4 players will call. Even though you are sure you don't have the best hand, you are making a profit because you are collecting 4:1 on your raise while only being 2:1 against having the best hand at the river.

Now, back to your question as to the number of outs. Look at the next 2 tables he gives. If you are on the turn, refer to the first table. For the flop, use the second. Let's say you have a flush draw on the flop. Looking at the second table, he lists a flush draw as having 16.5 equivalent outs on the flop. Take that number look at the table that you don't understand. You will se on the second row that if you have 15 1/3 equivalent outs (or better) you can profitably bet or raise if you will have (at least) 2 callers.

Hope that helps.

Lost Wages

[schubes]

This table, and the idea of an "out", is designed for hands that are drawing to a hand that will likely win. For instance, if you have a straight flush draw on the turn, and you think any straight or flush will win, you have 15 cards that will complete your draw (outs). So looking at the table you need at least 3 callers to be winning more than your fair share.

This doesn't apply as well to made hands like a big pair. With one card to come you can consider any card that doesn't help your opponents to be an "out." You'll often have more than 23 outs, so you can bet or raise one opponent profitably. This perspective isn't too usefull since you can't usually count your "outs" with any precision when you have a made hand, and it doesn't work at all on the flop since you need to catch an card on both the turn and the river that doesn't help your opponent.

I guess if you really wanted to push the idea of outs for made hands you can consider a big pair a really strong runner runner draw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]