Review: Hands 71 and 75

Shillx · #1 09-04-2005, 07:18 PM

Awesome, another lazy and drunken Sunday. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This Micro Poster thing is pretty cool, but it seems like our hero hasn't given us much to work with this time.

Hand 71:

Preflop: Hero is SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, MP3 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

This hand isn't super interesting (and I like your plan here fwiw) but the general idea imo is that you should be betting the river in these spots. We have no idea what the bettor has (namely if he has a hand worth betting again) and we have to guess that the caller doesn't have much, so we should probably bet this river card. Actually we should be betting this river card.

This batch of hands is pretty reasonable aside from maybe a few questionable checks and folds. Here is one that I didn't get...

Hand 75:

Villain has been playing too many hands. Very passive pre-flop, and sometimes tricky post-flop.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls.

I think you got very lucky on this river. I obviously think that your hand will be good well over 50% of the time (or even 66%), but do we think you will be good that often when you are either called or 4-bet?

Brad

#2 09-04-2005, 07:41 PM

Hand 71:

You're right - without a read that BB is very aggressive and will continue most of the time, this is a must-bet river. FPS on my part.

Hand 75:

The only reason I think the 3-bet might be worthwhile is the super-low board. It's hard to put villain on a hand that the 6 actually helped. It just seemed in the moment like a TP or overpair called down and wanted to raise my AK. (It seems like everyone assumes you have AK when you raise PF.)

EDIT: For grammar.

aK13 · #3 09-04-2005, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 71:

You're right - without a read that BB is very aggressive and will continue most of the time, this is a must-bet river. FPS.

Hand 75:

The only reason I think the 3-bet might be worthwhile is the super-low board. It's hard to put villain on a card that the 6 actually helped. It just seemed in the moment like a TP or overpair called down and wanted to raise my AK. (It seems like everyone assumes you have AK when you raise PF.)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not unlikely that he has a 3 or a set, IMO.

LoaferGee12 · #4 09-04-2005, 08:00 PM

Er, in hand 2, there are 2 reasons I think he'd raise this river. One is on a bluff to knock you off your overcards, in which case he's folding to a 3-bet anyhow and thus it gains you nothing. The second is with a hand that crushes you. Either way, I'm just not seeing much value in the 3-bet.

#5 09-04-2005, 08:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Er, in hand 2, there are 2 reasons I think he'd raise this river. One is on a bluff to knock you off your overcards, in which case he's folding to a 3-bet anyhow and thus it gains you nothing. The second is with a hand that crushes you. Either way, I'm just not seeing much value in the 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you guys are right. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] After looking at all these hands that I've played poorly, I'm amazed I'm doing as well as I am. (And I don't mean that sarcastically - I really am surprised after seeing all of my poor play exposed.)

lautzutao · #6 09-04-2005, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Er, in hand 2, there are 2 reasons I think he'd raise this river. One is on a bluff to knock you off your overcards, in which case he's folding to a 3-bet anyhow and thus it gains you nothing. The second is with a hand that crushes you. Either way, I'm just not seeing much value in the 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this assessment. There is too much risk in placing the 3-bet here, and not enough reward.

#7 09-04-2005, 08:16 PM

Hand 71

At the risk of sounding like a rube (again, I'm learning, be nice!), what about value-betting on the turn? There are 13 outs to the straight or (near-nut)-flush, and 3 more if Kings are good. That's 2.5-1. If you get raised and call, and check & call on the river, the result is the same. The other option on the river is to bet & call a reraise.

srt19170 · #8 09-07-2005, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 71

At the risk of sounding like a rube (again, I'm learning, be nice!), what about value-betting on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be a rube, too.

numeri · #9 09-07-2005, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 71

At the risk of sounding like a rube (again, I'm learning, be nice!), what about value-betting on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be a rube, too.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you give hero on the turn?

srt19170 · #10 09-07-2005, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]

How many outs do you give hero on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

As the original poster said, 9 outs to the flush, 4 outs to the straight, and 3 outs to the pair of Kings. If the Kings are good you're 1.88:1, which makes a bet (or better, a raise) for value straightforward. Even if you totally discount the Kings, you're probably getting better than 2:1 implied odds, aren't you? What am I missing?

-- Scott