80/160 straight on the turn

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say you have a ton of equity. I've given a range. Please comment if you think I should open it up a bit.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,192 games 0.047 secs 110,468 games/sec

Board: Ad Kd Jd Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 61.2673 % [ 00.45 00.16 ] { AcQh }
Hand 2: 38.7327 % [ 00.23 00.16 ] { TT-66, AQs-A5s, KQs-K8s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo }

I think you basically have to show this down against his range. It's really tough to extract the max without losing 3 BB. I think check-call down is okay. I think bet-call/call is okay if he is capable of raising a 2 pair or straight hand on a 4 flush board. If you wanted to get inventive, you could check-call, bet. My idea is that he might bet the turn on a 2 pair semi-bluff/free showdown.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]



a MUCH more useful sim would be "how often an I ahead now?" equity is misleading, as there are 4 daimonds and a 4 liner straight so he automatically has lots of outs. 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] has 5.5 outs.

[Dominic]

see a showdown cheaply.

check/call it down....you may get him to bet with a weaker hand. No reason to bet the turn - if he raises, now what?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

a MUCH more useful sim would be "how often an I ahead now?" equity is misleading, as there are 4 daimonds and a 4 liner straight so he automatically has lots of outs. 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] has 5.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the equity assuming a river blank. This more accurately portrays the % time we are ahead on the turn.

Board: Ad Kd Jd Td 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 69.6000 % [ 00.61 00.09 ] { AcQh }
Hand 2: 30.4000 % [ 00.22 00.09 ] { TT-66, AQs-A5s, KQs-K8s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo }


Krishan

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's not tricky, I like a bet. if you aren't sure you can fold to a raise then I like check-call down. you're in good shape against his range right now. unfortunately he always has plenty of outs. there are 9 unseen diamonds, and if he has none, he has 5.5 (9/2 diamonds + 2/2 queens) outs automatically.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds like vu would be very tricky, especially with cdcs read that vu is a good hand reader. since thats the case i agree with check-call down. but i also think betting and calling a raise down is a good line too. i wouldnt put bet/fold into there.

[Lawrence Ng]

Very good post CDC.

I bet the turn, see what happens.

If he calls, I check-call the river.

If he raises, I very likely muck.

If he's a good hand reader and good player, then he has to know that wouldn't possibly get too fancy with with the royal even if you had it since you hope he would have say 99 or 88 with a diamond in his hand or possibly two pair. Either way a bet on the turn seems the way to go.

Lawrence

[Chris Daddy Cool]

this obviously was a very dangerous flop for me despite having top pair.

on this turn he could have one of many hands. we could be chopping. he could have a set. he could have two pair. of course he could also have a flush.

i wasn't exactly sure what to do on this turn, and i wasn't quite sure what he'd do on this turn, but i bet. and he called in tempo.

river: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

um... ?

[KdoubleK]

Well since you bet the turn, you might as well bet the river. And as you do, say "ok we chop." If he raises you here I think you can safely fold, but its definately worth 1 more to take the whole pot. I'm guessing he had AQ no diamond too.

[DeeJ]

He's not folded the turn so he's not folding the river, as the only uncertainty remaining is whether the flush is out there. I think you have to check/call. You'll surely get called by anyone decent (except "Frank") and any halfway reasonable diamond will raise you and you don't want that, do you, bobby?

[jason_t]

I think that check/folding the river should not be considered absurd and is possibly marginally best.