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#1
12-02-2005, 08:19 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL 6Max....Is this chip spewing?
The fun with gross overbets is that, if you have it, it only neets to get called like 1/10 of the time (for a 10x pot bet) to be better than a pot sized value bet (that mostly always gets called). However, if you don't have it, it has to work like 9/10 of the time. You're inflating the odds the wrong way.
I'm not sure there's any spot for this bet with absolute air. If you think he can make this call with A5, then its a phenominal bet with like two pair or a set or something. You can't expect them to pay off your feigned busted draw overbets but fold to your overbets when you really have nothing. It doesn't work like that. Everett 
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#2
12-02-2005, 08:28 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL 6Max....Is this chip spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
You can't expect them to pay off your feigned busted draw overbets but fold to your overbets when you really have nothing. [/ QUOTE ] This implies that he's either going to call every time or fold every time. That's an extremely exploitable strategy. In reality, what happens among good players is it becomes a guessing game. Usually the board dictates how likely you think your opponent will play a particular hand with an overbet on the river like that. If the river wasn't a diamond, I wouldn't make the play because 33 is probably the only hand I could play that way. However, with the diamond, I could now have 33 in addition to any x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]y [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
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#3
12-02-2005, 08:43 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL 6Max....Is this chip spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You can't expect them to pay off your feigned busted draw overbets but fold to your overbets when you really have nothing. [/ QUOTE ] This implies that he's either going to call every time or fold every time. That's an extremely exploitable strategy. In reality, what happens among good players is it becomes a guessing game. Usually the board dictates how likely you think your opponent will play a particular hand with an overbet on the river like that. If the river wasn't a diamond, I wouldn't make the play because 33 is probably the only hand I could play that way. However, with the diamond, I could now have 33 in addition to any x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]y [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, but as I read it this wasn't a battle of two good players who know each other well and are playing some guessing game. This guy seems mediocre, and against a mediocre chap it looks like you desperately trying to represent something. I'm just not convinced that he's picked up on your tendency to overbet big hands, and it more looks like you going apeshit on a good bluff card. If I missed a read and hes actually a good thinking player that knows you, then I take that back. Everett Edit: I read "sandbag" not as someones screen name but as some description of his play being laggy. Whoops. I guess this guy is reputable?
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