Push or Fold - 9's

gcDanno · #1 10-21-2004, 08:06 AM

Final table of Stars $30 (my 3rd final in 2 weeks). I got here by stealing blinds like crazy. I had lost my last 3 all in showdowns. Just can't win a coin toss. No difference here. Read on big stack says 2 things. First is he ain't gonna fold, so there is no folding equity in a push. And 2nd, is that he probably has 2 overs. Fold and go back to stealing?

Who just calls, and pushes on the flop? I did this in my last final table with TT. Of course, guy was stealing with J5, and hit J on flop. Oh well...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t50713)
UTG (t56860)
UTG+1 (t44496)
MP1 (t22932)
MP2 (t74562)
MP3 (t190190)
CO (t164311)
Button (t32630)
Hero (t33806)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises to t12000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t33606, 1 fold, CO calls t21606.

Flop: (t68612) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t68612) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t68612) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t68612
Main Pot: t68612 (t68612), between CO and Hero. > Pot won by CO (t68612).

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9c 9h (two pair, nines and sevens).
CO has Kh Qh (two pair, queens and sevens).
Outcome: CO wins t68612.

Stoneii · #2 10-21-2004, 08:48 AM

First off congrats - lend me a final table please I can't buy one for some time now [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I haven't read your results as it will no doubt effect my thoughts (i.e. I may get it right lol) but here's my tuppence worth.

First thought, you say u got there by stealing like mad so given it's a final table, 1/2 are likely to have witnessed some/all of this thievery and noted this. Second thought, u have a read on big stack so he at least has been at table with you a while and has seen you perform your steals (giving him his own read?)

Third thought, he raises to 3BB and from your read you know he won't fold to an all-in so why push if you're at best on the decent side of a 50/50 and at worst a huge dog to an overpair. If you're so sure he's on overcards (perhaps he always raises more/less with big PP) then why not try ye olde stop and go, it's looks a great flop for it (imo).

Call the 12k and throw it all in on the flop - if he has only overs, it only gives him two more cards to see and he's more inclined to lay down.

just my thoughts, I'll away and read yer results now....

...mmm read it now - interesting you just may have got him to lay it down.

stoneii

TheGremlin · #3 10-21-2004, 09:50 AM

any play u play here will put u in somekind of truble.
since he is the big stack.

what I usualy do with small PP against big stack on late stages is the following:

If he raised I will rerais preflop the amount of the rerais depends on my stack, if he calls he probaby has 2 over most likely AK AQ if he is strong , or AJ KQS KJS.

than I wait to see the flop and turn. ( in early stage I push it on the flop ), on late stage I will wait to see the turn , if turn is A K or Q , I will probably fold.

If turn is blank, I push !

the only way I push it preflop or post flop is against small stack or big stack earlier stages.

SixgunSam · #4 10-21-2004, 09:59 AM

Looks like this would be a good spot for a stop and go. He might call anyway, but at least there is a chance he will fold rather than call that extra 20k with a K high. Anyone agree?

gcDanno · #5 10-21-2004, 10:03 AM

In retrospect, I am leaning towards this. Additionaly because this was played at RiverStars, this makes the stopngo even more viable.

fnurt · #6 10-21-2004, 10:19 AM

EVERY TIME someone pairs their overcards on the turn or river, people chime in, you could have avoided that with the stop-and-go!

Look at it this way. Assume the cards are face up. You call pre-flop and push on the flop. Your opponent is a 3-1 dog at this point. Do you want him to call or fold? Of COURSE you want him to call, he doesn't have close to the correct odds. Saying that you want him to fold, because with the benefit of hindsight you know that a queen came on the turn, is just playing results.

Since you would prefer for him to call as a 3-1 dog, you shouldn't feel bad about getting the money in preflop. You didn't give him two "free" cards, you charged him 21k extra to see those two cards!

Some people will say that they would prefer to see a fold on the flop, even though their opponent is not getting close to the correct odds, because 25% of the time they will be out of the tournament. Those people are wrong. You are short-stacked at the final table. You cannot afford to pass up a +EV opportunity at making an additional 21k.

Here is why 99 is one of the worst hands you can try a stop-and-go with. It is ONLY profitable when your opponent holds specifically a higher pair than yours, and when your flop bet induces him to fold because of scary overcards. (For example, villain holds TT, and the flop is AKQ.) When your opponent holds overcards, in general he will call when he hits a pair on the flop, and fold when he doesn't. Both of these happen to be the correct play if the cards were face up, aside from the rare case where he hits a pair and you flop a set. So most of the time, you are inducing your opponent to play correctly, which is not the sign of a brilliant strategy.

SixgunSam · #7 10-21-2004, 10:26 AM

That is an excellent post fnurt and that is the reason why I love this forum! Okay, here is a question though, which hands would you want to do a stop and go with in this situation?

gergery · #8 10-21-2004, 04:15 PM

Hmm, I started this post thinking Fnurt might be wrong, but I should have known better, lol. Since I did the #’s I thought I’d post.

If you reached the point in time where your opponent raised the 12k, and knew he had KQ for sure, then You have 3 choices after his 12k open raise.

1) Fold. Clearly wrong since you have best hand. You will have 31.8k at end of hand, so that is your EV.

2) Push. He now has odds to call you so will. There will be 71.6 in the pot (your 33.8 + his 33.8 +4k BB). You are 55% favorite. So .55(71.6) + .45 (0)=39.4. You will average 39.4 at end of hand over millions of identical hands so that is your EV.

3). Call. The push if KQ hits, or fold if doesn’t. (I’ll add 2% to KQ’s chances since it’ll catch a straightdraw then fill up about that often). So either 3A) KQ hits, which happens 36% of the time and you will fold, losing -12k. With your sb loss, you end the hand at 19.8 (33.8-12-2). Or, 3B) KQ misses, which happens 64% of time and you push in for 20k, he doesn’t have odds to call and folds (if he doesn’t then this scenario gets even better for you). You end the hand at 49.8 (33.8 original money + 12k his bet +4k BB).
.36(19.8) + .64(49.8) = 38.9 net value.

For these purposes, I’ll assume the .5 EV difference between options 2 and 3 are negligible.

So qualitatively, which option is better? Well, in practice you can put him on two overcards, but you won’t know which ones. So you will push sometimes and get called when he has the better hand, but he’ll fold when your ahead. So realistically option 3) loses some value. But then he might still call sometimes when you push, figuring you’re bluffing or he’ll suck out (seems realistic since he’s got a monster stack). So option 3) gains some value. On balance tho, I think it probably loses more than it gains.

Lastly, is there any value from the lower variance #3 gives you? Meaning with point 2) Push you must forgo any future EV plays 45% of the time since you’re gone, but in 3) you have a much greater chance of still being in the tourney. If you’re better than your opponents, then future EV plays should be positive and you’re giving those up. Also, chipEV differs vs. Cash EV, and being able to stay in the tourney clearly has value since you move up in places. For example, if you could take your chips and leave the table, only to return when only one opponent was left at the table, that’s probably pretty EV+, as you lock up 2nd place and still have a shot at 1st (albeit reduced).

Net, I think it probably a fairly close decision between calling then pushing good flops vs. pushing in immediately, but I agree that pushing is probably the better option.

--Greg

DonkeyKong · #9 10-21-2004, 05:30 PM

Doesn't the 12% chance of flopping a set change the EV result to option #3? If you flop a set and check, you could still double-up...

If you miss your set, so long as flop doesn't come with A&K, A&Q or K&Q; you push all-in... If it comes Axx, Kxx or Qxx --- move all-in and hope he didn't pair. If it comes 2 out of 3; A Q x, A K x, K Q x... fold...

You are allowing your opponent to make the correct EV play but, assuming he has 2 overs, he was making the correct EV play anyway given the pot odds pre-flop... so this isn't giving that much up... also, with this strategy, if you call with 55 and it comes A T 2, you will move in (since only 1 big card) and he may not call with a bigger pocket pair...

fnurt · #10 10-21-2004, 06:36 PM

The fact that calling and seeing the flop does not give you a better result than pushing EVEN IF YOU KNOW HIS HAND really says it all.

In general I have a philosophical problem with playing "guess what overcards he has" when you hold a pocket pair. You will let yourself get bluffed off the pot way too often. Imagine you hold 99 on a flop of AKx, and he holds TT. This is the situation where the stop-and-go shows the most profit relative to other plays, but you sacrifice that edge if you assume he has overcards and gives it up. For an even more tragic example, assume the flop is AKx and he has 88!

If you're looking for a play that dominates the stop-and-go, against many players the right answer might be to check-call the flop. Since you're not getting any hands better than yours to fold anyway, you might as well try and induce a bluff in case he has a hand worse than yours. Of course, you risk a free card; but against standard opponents who tend to bet the flop after raising preflop, you should more than make up for that when you induce a bluff.