Interesting turn decision

WillMagic · #1 11-07-2005, 06:46 PM

Nice, loose-passive table. SB looks to be a solid TAG, but other than that no specific reads on the other players save the general loose-passiveness.

PokerStars 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero....

Will

newhizzle · #2 11-07-2005, 06:50 PM

id say someone has to have some kind of pair here, so a bet for free showdown with ace high is pretty worthless, also against 3 players i really doubt you have much FE and you clearly dont want to be c/r'd, so id check behind, plus that way hopefuly someone wil bet into you on the river should you hit

edit: and i dont think theyll believe that you have a nine here, also awesome table for 15/30

hobbsmann · #3 11-07-2005, 06:56 PM

check and I don't think it is all that close. Against a smaller field on the turn an argument can be made that you will have enough FE to make a bet EV+, but against 3 opponents, possibly drawing to 8 outs checking is clearly best.

Nick C · #4 11-07-2005, 06:56 PM

Well, it looks like SB, anyway, doesn't have a 9 or any pair here. Maybe your bet will convince someone else that you do. Is that good or bad? I don't know. It depends on if you have the best hand or can convince someone with, for instance, AJ or 66 to fold. Also, though, if you are behind, you may have 14 outs versus the hands that call.

I like your bet, but I'm not going to be shocked or anything if you get checkraised.

brettbrettr · #5 11-07-2005, 06:59 PM

I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

WillMagic · #6 11-07-2005, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
possibly drawing to 8 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly the world could end tomorrow. Possibly libertarians might take the White House in 2008. Possibly, possibly, whatever. I'm drawing to my full set of outs a huge portion of the time. I also have the best hand a small, but nonetheless significant portion of the time, thus...

[ QUOTE ]
checking is clearly best.

[/ QUOTE ]

...is a clearly wrong statement because it is clearly exaggerating how clear this play is.

Will

WillMagic · #7 11-07-2005, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt. But AT might be good. And if it is we definitely want to be betting. Good things can happen - we could get heads-up with another draw, we could fold AJ, KQ, and various other hands. Meanwhile if it isn't, we've got tons of outs so we don't lose very much.

brettbrettr · #8 11-07-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, thinking about it while I smoked and I'm not sure. Considering the board, there's a decent chance you're ahead here and you'd like to get as many guys out as possible. I think a bet will force hands like QJ and KJ and such to fold which if we are ahead, buy us some more outs.

Will, do you think any of these guys folds a middle pair here?

toss · #9 11-07-2005, 07:17 PM

I think if we bet someone might fold a pair of 2s or 3s thinking "Well he just made trips so I shouldn't try to draw anymore." I think. All I know the decision is close for me.

#10 11-07-2005, 07:20 PM

I like a bet on the turn. With that board, your hand may be best. You may also get weak pairs to fold. I think a 9 is not often held here. You have a ton of outs if you get called.